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As a social observer I have noticed a significant deterioration in confidence of the current economic structure. Yesterday I had FOUR people tell me that "shit will hit the fan" in one way or another. A few of these people used to scoff at my proclamations of doom a few years ago.
Yesterday at the mall I went for some shopping and the lady that's been serving us for years said something like this:
"Things are going to get crazy. Within 1 year I expect chaos in the streets. Everyone is going broke. We need to prepare."
Mind you this lady works at Saks at South Coast Plaza mall. The same lady told me in 2009 that "you have too much time on your hands" when I told her the system is broken and heading for an epic crash.
person number 2: went to a party last night to celebrate my friends dad's birthday. This same person used to tell me "things are getting better, its just a cycle" to I'm buying gold, silver and ammo."
person number 3: a highly educated individual who used to disregard my warnings spent at least an hour listening to every word coming out of my mouth. He said "we need to prepare, things are going to get scary." This person works as a school teacher at a relatively strong school district but sees the writing on the wall. Whereas before he would say "I'm tenured" now he says "no one is safe." I told him he was exactly right. The only thing he could do at this point was work hard, maintain his strong work ethic and to keep a look out for opportunities.
person number 4: owner of a new diner which is making mega $$$$. He came to our table and said "things are fucked up. People are going broke. Governments are going to broke. By next year I'm afraid that the whole thing is going to collapse."
person number 5: this was actually on Friday. I was in court for an appearance and I heard this attorney a few rows in front say the following:
"the deficits are out of control. They are printing money. Social security and medicare are completely insolvent. Unfunded liabilities number over 100 trillion. The banks are all lying and are insolvent. This is not going to end well."
In 2009 all I heard in court was golf this, football that, my case this, my car that. I have heard the above rant in many social settings such as restaurants, supermarkets, mediation's, etc. The significance here is that everyday people are waking up to the fraud that is at the core of our money system. Effectively, people are beginning to realize that there is simply too much debt in the system. Every time I hear people getting switched on gives me more hope. The Internet is opening peoples eyes on a daily basis.
Right now the debate that is furiously taking place in Europe is how to battle the debt crisis. The solution being proffered, maddeningly, is more debt!! Yes, lets fight debt with more fucking debt!! The truth definition of lunacy. And right now the periphery of the EU system is under attack, with Greece in a heap of shit and Italy and Spain teetering towards the edge. Unfortunately for the EuroPonzi, the French banks are in big trouble. Yes, the very core of the system is now being strained by this debt virus. And like all systems, the virus attacks the periphery first, then the core. In the United States, the debt virus is taking down counties and some states, but will eventually strike at the heart of the system, the US Treasury market.
Maybe by 2100 historians will look back at us the same way we looked at the world during the 1940's. Complete fucking lunatics. The 90's and the early 2000's were the easy years. The next two decades are going to be a roller coaster.
30 Eylül 2012 Pazar
World Oil Production Finishes Six Years of No Growth
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From the article:
We are entering what may be the longest stretch of no growth in world oil production since the early 1980s. But the reasons for that lack of growth differ in ways that ought to make us all uncomfortable.
Starting in 1980, production slumped because for the first time in history people needed less oil. After the huge oil price increases in the 1970s, cars suddenly got smaller. People became more careful about combining trips to save gas. A lot of people switched their home heating to natural gas which was considerably cheaper than heating oil. And, in the United States the Congress severely restricted the use of oil for new electric power generating plants. Those using oil began to switch to cheaper natural gas and coal. The whole globe went on an energy efficiency binge.
Beyond this, the world went through two recessions, one in 1980 and the second in 1981-82 which turned out to be the worst since World War II (until the current one). That curbed oil demand as economic activity sank. All the while, large oil discoveries in Alaska and the North Sea and furious drilling elsewhere produced a glut of capacity that sent prices from a high near $40 a barrel in early 1981 to about $16 a barrel six years later. As it turned out, all of these factors combined to keep world oil production below its 1980 peak until 1988.
Fast forward to 2005 when conventional oil supplies stopped growing and then fluctuated between 73 million and 74 million barrels per day on an annual basis through 2010. (Production averaged 73.8 million barrels per day this year from January through July, the last month for which data is available.) The chain of events following the 2005 peak are both different and worrisome. Following the cessation in growth of conventional oil supplies, the world economy continued to grow until the end of 2007 when it slipped into recession. Prices peaked in July 2008 at around $147 a barrel.
But then they plunged to around $35 a barrel in December 2008 as the world sank into an economic slump worse than anything since The Great Depression. With it oil demand and production slumped as well. Then the price did something that few people expected. It bounced back even as overall global economic recovery remained sluggish. Rapid recovery in the Far East, however, created robust demand for oil even as North American and European countries remained locked into an unusually tepid rebound. As a result, last spring prices for Brent crude vaulted above $125.
Read more:
http://scitizen.com/future-energies/time-to-worry-world-oil-production-finishes-six-years-of-no-growth_a-14-3714.html
Subprime:
Been a while since I lasted posted. Very busy and lots of crazy shit going on in my personal life (those on JDU) know what I'm talking about LOL. Wanted to add that the debate taking place around the world right now is GROWTH! How the fuck are these economies going to grow out of their debt problem. Watch the business new channels and they talk about "Greece, Italy and the US and how they will GROW out of their debt problem." The reality is with energy prices skyrocketing relative to a decade ago, the energy input has messed the equation. Simply put, a higher percentage of GDP must be allocated to the energy portion, something that was minuscule in the recent past. Now Italy teeters on the verge of a bond market implosion as the spread between Italian and German 10 year bonds surged to nearly 500 basis points (or 5%). Those are huge numbers.
Just yesterday the Italian 10 year hit an astounding 6.66% yield. The monkeys on wall street say that 7% is the point of no return, the event horizon if you will. I expect the powers that be to throw the kitchen sink at Italy's debt problem, such as the ECB, the Bank of Japan, the Federal Reserve and even the Chinese central bank to place bid after bid on Italian paper to prevent an all out holocaust on the financial markets. While little Greece was a problem, Italy has a monster $2.2 trillion debt market, one that can easily threaten the entire ponzi. TPTB will fight reality tooth and nail, but they will lose in the end as all sovereigns blow up.
With brent crude trading over $114 DESPITE the sluggish economy in the US and EU which constitute over 50% of global GDP, it is obvious that oil supply concerns dominate the energy markets. Throw in the potential of a Israeli-Iran conflict and all bets are off. This is probably the biggest reason why no action has taken place as the rulers know that $180 brent will sink every economy back into depression.
In conclusion, higher energy costs will act as quicksand to these sluggish economies that need higher growth to get out of their debt funk. Assuming growth returns, I can only imagine where brent will be trading at then. Until a new energy source comes into the picture, we will be sandwiched into this shit economy.
We are entering what may be the longest stretch of no growth in world oil production since the early 1980s. But the reasons for that lack of growth differ in ways that ought to make us all uncomfortable.
Starting in 1980, production slumped because for the first time in history people needed less oil. After the huge oil price increases in the 1970s, cars suddenly got smaller. People became more careful about combining trips to save gas. A lot of people switched their home heating to natural gas which was considerably cheaper than heating oil. And, in the United States the Congress severely restricted the use of oil for new electric power generating plants. Those using oil began to switch to cheaper natural gas and coal. The whole globe went on an energy efficiency binge.
Beyond this, the world went through two recessions, one in 1980 and the second in 1981-82 which turned out to be the worst since World War II (until the current one). That curbed oil demand as economic activity sank. All the while, large oil discoveries in Alaska and the North Sea and furious drilling elsewhere produced a glut of capacity that sent prices from a high near $40 a barrel in early 1981 to about $16 a barrel six years later. As it turned out, all of these factors combined to keep world oil production below its 1980 peak until 1988.
Fast forward to 2005 when conventional oil supplies stopped growing and then fluctuated between 73 million and 74 million barrels per day on an annual basis through 2010. (Production averaged 73.8 million barrels per day this year from January through July, the last month for which data is available.) The chain of events following the 2005 peak are both different and worrisome. Following the cessation in growth of conventional oil supplies, the world economy continued to grow until the end of 2007 when it slipped into recession. Prices peaked in July 2008 at around $147 a barrel.
But then they plunged to around $35 a barrel in December 2008 as the world sank into an economic slump worse than anything since The Great Depression. With it oil demand and production slumped as well. Then the price did something that few people expected. It bounced back even as overall global economic recovery remained sluggish. Rapid recovery in the Far East, however, created robust demand for oil even as North American and European countries remained locked into an unusually tepid rebound. As a result, last spring prices for Brent crude vaulted above $125.
Read more:
http://scitizen.com/future-energies/time-to-worry-world-oil-production-finishes-six-years-of-no-growth_a-14-3714.html
Subprime:
Been a while since I lasted posted. Very busy and lots of crazy shit going on in my personal life (those on JDU) know what I'm talking about LOL. Wanted to add that the debate taking place around the world right now is GROWTH! How the fuck are these economies going to grow out of their debt problem. Watch the business new channels and they talk about "Greece, Italy and the US and how they will GROW out of their debt problem." The reality is with energy prices skyrocketing relative to a decade ago, the energy input has messed the equation. Simply put, a higher percentage of GDP must be allocated to the energy portion, something that was minuscule in the recent past. Now Italy teeters on the verge of a bond market implosion as the spread between Italian and German 10 year bonds surged to nearly 500 basis points (or 5%). Those are huge numbers.
Just yesterday the Italian 10 year hit an astounding 6.66% yield. The monkeys on wall street say that 7% is the point of no return, the event horizon if you will. I expect the powers that be to throw the kitchen sink at Italy's debt problem, such as the ECB, the Bank of Japan, the Federal Reserve and even the Chinese central bank to place bid after bid on Italian paper to prevent an all out holocaust on the financial markets. While little Greece was a problem, Italy has a monster $2.2 trillion debt market, one that can easily threaten the entire ponzi. TPTB will fight reality tooth and nail, but they will lose in the end as all sovereigns blow up.
With brent crude trading over $114 DESPITE the sluggish economy in the US and EU which constitute over 50% of global GDP, it is obvious that oil supply concerns dominate the energy markets. Throw in the potential of a Israeli-Iran conflict and all bets are off. This is probably the biggest reason why no action has taken place as the rulers know that $180 brent will sink every economy back into depression.
In conclusion, higher energy costs will act as quicksand to these sluggish economies that need higher growth to get out of their debt funk. Assuming growth returns, I can only imagine where brent will be trading at then. Until a new energy source comes into the picture, we will be sandwiched into this shit economy.
Today’s Gold price per ounce Spot gold price per gram; Price of Silver; Metal Market Trends August 8, 2012 mid-day
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Today’s Precious Metal Market trend review today August 8, 2012 mid-day:
Gold price dropped lower during the last full trading session and December contract closed the day at 1,612.80 per troy ounce. Silver contract finished the last session at 28.09 per troy ounce. This morning, price trends for both gold and silver were tracking lower. Stock futures were also negative prior to opening bell this morning. Traders appear to be stepping back today, after three consecutive days of a market rally, to further process the current economic conditions in the U.S. and abroad. Additional financial support options are still on the table in the U.S. and eurozone and investors wait on news that will promote or diminish the potentials. Currently, gold and silver price trend-lines have tracked positively over the last several weeks. Silver one month price change is positive by 2.54 percent. Gold’s one month price change is positive by 1.61 percent.
As today’s trading session reached the mid-day mark, gold and silver price trends were mixed.
Today’s gold price per ounce and silver price per ounce mid-day review August 8, 2012 mid-day: December contract gold was tracking higher today as of the mid-day mark. Gold price was positive by .14 percent at 1,615.10 per troy ounce according to mid-day electronic price post. September contract silver was lower by .45 percent at an electronic price of 27.96 per troy ounce as of the mid-day mark.
Price trend review for spot gold and spot silver today August 8, 2012 mid-day:
Price trends for spot gold and spot silver were mixed halfway through the trading session today. Spot gold price per gram was higher at 51.88 and spot silver per ounce was lower at 28.06 at mid-day.
Camillo Zucari
Alerta de Google: "espectaculos 2012"
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| Alerta de Google: "espectaculos 2012" | Espectaculos 2012 ThalÃa con pantalones al estilo ¿Hammer Miércoles 08 de agosto de 2012 a las 1600. La cantante subió una foto a su cuenta de Twitter donde le presumió a ... espectaculos-2012.blogspot.com/.../alerta-de-google-espectacu... | ||
| Eiza González muestra su sensualidad bajo el sol La actriz mexicana aprovechó sus dÃas de descanso para lucir su hermosa figura en las playas de Acapulco, al lado de su novio Pepe DÃaz. www.quien.com/.../eiza-gonzalez-muestra-su-sensualidad-bajo... | ||
| Punto Medio | Espectáculos | Schwarzenegger rueda documental ... Punto Medio - El fortachón ex gobernador de California se encuentra en su natal Austria para filmar una cinta sobre su vida para la cadena estadunidense CBS ... www.puntomedio.com.mx/espectaculos/2012/08/08/.../5715/ | ||
| Conmemoran 50 años de "La Garota de Ipanema - CNN - CHILE ... El Bossa Nova está de cumpleaños. Este jueves se celebra el cincuentenario de la primera vez que fue interpretada la canción escrita por Vinicius de Moraes. www.cnnchile.com/.../conmemoran-50-anos-de--la-garota-de-... | ||
| Director de - CNN - CHILE : CULTURA-ESPECTACULOS Pablo LarraÃn analizó los hechos que sucedieron a fines de los ochenta en Chile , desde su mirada personal y desde su profesión de cineasta, además de ... www.cnnchile.com/.../director-de-no-explica-las-motivaciones... |
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Randgold earnings beat views, projects on track
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Randgold earnings beat views, projects on track
MarketWatch – 9 minutes ago
Randgold Resources sees its half-year profits jump by 41% – Stock Market Wire
Randgold Q2 profit, production up despite Mali unrest – Reuters
29 Eylül 2012 Cumartesi
Your Google AdSense account has been disabled
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We continually review all publishers according to our program policies ( https://www.google.com/support/adsense/bin/answer.py?answer=48182&stc=aspe-3pp-en ) and Terms and Conditions ( https://www.google.com/adsense/localized-terms?&stc=aspe-3tc-en ). During a recent review of your account, our specialists found that it was not in compliance with our policies.
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WEBMASTER GUIDELINES: Publishers may not place Google ads on pages that violate Google's webmaster quality guidelines (http://www.google.com/support/webmasters/bin/answer.py?answer=35769#quality). While we've included the following excerpts from these guidelines, we recommend that you take the time to review them in their entirety.
* Make pages for users, not for search engines.
* Don't employ cloaking or sneaky redirects.
* Don't load pages with irrelevant words.
* Don't create multiple pages, subdomains, or domains with substantially duplicate content.
* Don't participate in link schemes designed to increase your site's ranking or PageRank.
* Avoid "doorway" pages created just for search engines, or other "cookie cutter" approaches such as affiliate programs with little or no original content.
* Avoid tricks intended to improve search engine rankings. A good rule of thumb is whether you'd feel comfortable explaining what you've done to a website that competes with you. Another useful test is to ask, "Does this help my users? Would I do this if search engines didn't exist?"
* If your site participates in an affiliate program, make sure that your site adds value. Provide unique and relevant content that gives users a reason to visit your site first.
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Google Alert - djia today
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Google Alert - oil barrel price
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| Oil up at $112.75 on supply fears, stimulus hopes Reuters Canada LONDON (Reuters) - Oil prices rose to around $112.75 a barrel on Thursday, buoyed by supply disruptions in the Gulf of Mexico and lower Brent output along with disappointing data from China, which raised hopes in some quarters of further monetary ... See all stories on this topic » | ||
| Oil May Retreat on Fastest Stockpiling Rate in 14 Years Bloomberg Brent, a benchmark grade for more than half the world's oil, fell below $90 a barrel in late June, then rebounded as a European Union embargo on Iran's crude came into full effect in July. Prices are down 0.2 percent today at $111.88 after settling ... See all stories on this topic » | ||
| Indian Oil Posts Nation's Biggest Quarterly Loss of $4.1 Billion Bloomberg Indian Oil Corp. (IOCL) posted the nation's biggest quarterly loss of 224.5 billion rupees ($4.1 billion) after the government failed to compensate it for capping fuel prices and processing margins turned negative. The country's largest company had ... See all stories on this topic » | ||
| Oil steadies at $112 after disappointing China data Reuters LONDON (Reuters) - Oil prices steadied around $112 a barrel on Thursday as sobering production and consumption data from China weighed on the demand outlook, but prices remained elevated due to supply disruptions in the Gulf of Mexico and lower ... See all stories on this topic » |
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Google Alert - crude prices trend
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| Crude Oil, Gold Outlook Mixed as Risk Trends Parse Conflicting Forces NASDAQ If that proves to tip the scales into risk-averse territory, growth-linked crude oil and copper prices are likely to follow shares higher while gold and silver come under de-facto selling pressure as haven demand boosts the US Dollar. WTI Crude Oil (NY ... See all stories on this topic » | ||
| EU advisor: Iran should've invested billions into new oil refineries Trend.az Iranian government should have planned ahead, and invest 80-120 billion U.S. dollars in the new and improved refineries as well as technologies which would have enabled the oil sector to move away from the sale of crude, EU economic advisor Mehrdad ... See all stories on this topic » |
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Google Alert - gold prices today per ounce
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| PRECIOUS-Gold steadies above $1610 per oz as euro extends losses Reuters Canada LONDON (Reuters) - Gold prices steadied above $1610 an ounce on Thursday, surrendering early gains as the euro extended losses, though speculation that central banks will unveil more monetary stimulus measures to boost growth firmly underpinned the ... See all stories on this topic » | ||
| Lake Shore Gold Reports Strong Second Quarter Results Stockhouse (TSX:LSG)(NYSE MKT:LSG)(NYSE Amex:LSG) ("Lake Shore Gold" or the "Company") today announced financial and operating results for the second quarter and first six months of 2012. During the second quarter, the Company achieved strong production and cash ... See all stories on this topic » | ||
| Aurizon Reports Second Quarter 2012 Financial Results Stockhouse The average realized gold price was US$1592 per ounce and the average Cad/US exchange rate was 1.02, compared to realized prices of US$1521 per ounce at an average exchange rate of 0.97 in the same quarter of 2011. The average London afternoon ... See all stories on this topic » | ||
| Gold Production Down Another 4% in South Africa Resource Investor Today's AM fix was USD 1612.75, EUR 1307.46, and GBP 1029.79 per ounce. Yesterday's AM ... Gold has been up and down insignificantly in Asia maintaining a price near yesterday's close in New York and is trading near $1612/oz. at the open in Europe. See all stories on this topic » | ||
| Aurizon Mines lowers gold production forecast for full year Reuters Canada Gold prices rose 7 percent during April-June from a year earlier to average $1611 per ounce. Shares of British Columbia-based Aurizon closed at C$4.38 on Wednesday on the Toronto Stock Exchange. (Reporting by Krithika Krishnamurthy in Bangalore; ... See all stories on this topic » | ||
| Tocqueville's Hathaway: "$2000 Gold Price Is Very Close" BullionVault Last August, it reached $1900/oz. It has had every opportunity to sink below the low it made at the end of 2011. Basically, the price has been in sideways movement for the last seven months. I see gold coiling, moving into stronger and stronger hands ... See all stories on this topic » |
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28 Eylül 2012 Cuma
Gold in a bubble? A contrarian view
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From the Automatic Earth:
Our most consistent theme here at The Automatic Earth has been the developing deflationary environment and the knock-on effects that will follow as a result. Now that the rally from March 2009 appears to be well and truly over, it is time to revisit aspects of the bigger picture, in order for people to prepare for a full-blown liquidity crunch. October 2007-March 2009 was merely a taster.
As we have explained before, inflation and deflation are monetary phenomena - respectively an increase and decrease in the supply of money plus credit relative to available goods and services - and are major drivers of price movements. They are not the only price drivers, to be sure, but they are usually the most significant. People generally focus on nominal prices, when understanding price drivers is far more important. A focus merely on nominal price also obscures what is happening to affordability - the comparison between price and purchasing power.
We have lived through some 30 years of inflationary times, since the financial liberalization of the early 1980s under Reagan and Thatcher initiated the era of globalization. Money freed from capital controls was free to look for opportunities worldwide, and the resulting global economic boom greatly increased trade, resource consumption, financial interconnectedness and the multiplier effect for monetary expansion.
The increased purchasing power that resulted, largely for the better off, found its way into asset markets around the world, allowing people to bid up prices. This created a psychological 'wealth effect', which spawned an orgy of consumption through borrowing against rising nominal assets values. This in turn led to greater monetary expansion, since money is lent into existence. Fractional reserve banking, securitization, the enormous expansion of the shadow banking system and many other factors acted as engines of monetary expansion.
This spiral of positive feedback started slowly, but gradually morphed into a global mania of epic proportions. Caution was thrown to the wind, debt expanded exponentially, risk multiplied, wealth concentration increased with higher returns to capital and consumption became almost frenetic where increasing purchasing power supported it. At the same time, rising consumer prices put increasing pressure on the less privileged, who were forced to compete for basic necessities becoming ever more expensive. As we have seen in a number of places, this has been a major ingredient in the development of social unrest. High prices, and fear of both higher prices and actual shortages, can be socially explosive.
Rising prices are not themselves inflation, as we have repeatedly explained, but are the result of it. Credit expansions create excess claims to underlying real wealth through the creation of artificial, or virtual, value. They also bring demand forward, increasing pressure on resources for the duration of the expansion period. Extrapolating consumption trends forwards linearly leads to fear of shortages, which encourages market participants to bid up prices speculatively.
However, being based on Ponzi dynamics, credit expansions and speculative manias are naturally self-limiting. Credit expansions proceed until the debt they generate can no longer be serviced, and there are no more willing borrowers and lenders to continue lending money into existence. Speculative manias continue until the greatest fool has committed himself to the exhausted trend, and no one remains to push prices up further.
As an expansion develops, one can generally expect increasing upward pressure on commodity prices, thanks to both demand stimulation and latterly the perception that prices can only continue to increase. The resulting crescendo of fear - of impending shortages - is accompanied by the parabolic price rise typical of speculative bubbles, as momentum chasing creates a self-fulfilling prophecy. At the point where almost everyone with the capacity to do so has jumped on the bandwagon, and all agree that the upward trend is set in stone, a trend change is typically imminent.
We find ourselves still near the peak of the largest credit bubble in history. As faith in many of the more spurious 'asset' classes devised by 'financial innovation' has been shaken, faith in the ever increasing value of commodities has strengthened. However, commodities are not immune to the effects of a shift from credit expansion to credit contraction, despite justifications for endless price rises, such as apparently bottomless demand from China and the other BRIC countries.
Every bubble is accompanied by the story that it is different this time, that this time prices are justified by fundamentals which can only propel prices ever upwards. It is never different this time, no matter what rationalizations exist for speculative fervour. BRIC demand only appears to be insatiable if we make our predictions solely by extrapolating past trends, but that approach leaves us blind to trend changes and therefore vulnerable to running off a cliff. Insatiable demand results from seemingly endless cheap credit, given that demand is not what one wants, but what one can pay for. When credit collapses, so will demand, and with it the justification for higher prices.
While credit expansion (inflation) is a powerful driver of increasing prices, credit contraction (deflation) is a far more powerful driver of decreasing prices. Credit, having no substance, is subject to abrupt fear-driven disappearance. Confidence and liquidity are synonymous, and confidence is once again evaporating quickly, as it did in phase one of the credit crunch (October 2007-March 2009). As contraction picks up momentum, the loss of credit will rapidly lead to liquidity crunch, drastically undermining price support for almost everything. With purchasing power in sharp retreat, however, lower prices will not lead to greater affordability. Purchasing power typically falls faster than price under such circumstances, so that almost everything becomes less affordable even as prices fall.
Credit expansion reversed in 2008, and this is deflation by definition. Despite the talked-up attempts to monetize debt through quantitative easing - a deliberate attempt to stoke inflation fears in order to counteract the psychology of deflation - money plus credit has been in net contraction. Talk of monetary growth based on only the money fraction misses the elephant in the room, since the vast majority of the effective money supply is credit, and the tightening of credit is by far the dominant factor.
Gold has been increasingly considered to be the ultimate safe haven. The certainty has been so great that prices rose by hundreds of dollars an ounce in a blow-off top over a mere two months. The speculative reversal currently underway should be rapid and devastating for the True Believers in gold's ability to defy gravity eternally. Expect to hear all about the enormous Ponzi scheme in paper gold, and a lot more about plated tungsten masquerading as gold. It doesn't even matter whether or not that rumor is true. What matters is whether or not people believe it, and how it could feed into a spiral of fear as prices fall.
Central banks are buying gold, which some consider to be a major vote of confidence, and therefore bullish for gold prices. However, it is instructive to look at the previous behavior of central banks in relation to gold prices. When gold hit its low point eleven years ago, after a long and drawn out decline, central bankers were selling, in an atmosphere where gold was dismissed as a mere industrial metal of little interest, or even as a 'barbarous relic'.
Selling by central banks, which are always one of the last parties to act on developing received wisdom, was actually a very strong contrarian signal that gold was bottoming. They would not have been selling if they had anticipated a major price run up, but central banks are reactive rather than proactive, and often suffer from considerable inertia. As a result they tend to be overtaken by events. Regarding them as omnipotent directors and acting accordingly is therefore very dangerous.
Now we are seeing the opposite scenario. After eleven years of increasingly sharp rise, central banks are finally buying, and they are doing so at a time when the received wisdom is that gold will continue to reach for the sky. Once again, central banks are issuing a strong contrarian signal, this time in the opposite direction. While commentators opine that central banks will hold their gold even if they develop an urgent need for cash, this is highly unlikely. In a deflationary environment, it is cash that is scarce, and cash that everyone, including central bankers, will be chasing. Selling gold to raise cash may well not be a matter of choice.
Typically a speculative bubble is followed by the reversal of speculation causing prices to fall, and then by falling demand, which undermines prices further. As the bubble unwinds, people begin to jump on a new bandwagon in the opposite direction, chasing momentum as always. The need to access cash by selling whatever can be sold (rather than what one might like to sell), and the on-going collapse of the effective money supply as credit tightens mercilessly, will also factor into the developing vicious circle.
Gold has been considered money for thousands of years, and will hold its value over the long term. However, this does not preclude a huge downward move in the shorter term, and for those forced to sell early, there is no longer term perspective. Spot prices will fall, but those with no bargaining power will get much less than the spot price if they are forced to sell into what is likely to be the ultimate buyers market during the next few years. They will never be able to buy back into the market, and would generally have been better off holding the cash that will appreciate in value for the few years of the credit collapse. Only those who can genuinely hold gold for the duration of the deleveraging, without having to rely on the value it represents in the meantime, will really be able to use it as a store of value.
We stand on the verge of a precipice. The effects of the first real liquidity crunch for decades will be profound. We are going to see prices fall across the board, but far fewer will be able to afford goods or assets at those lower prices than can currently afford them at today's lofty levels. The social effects of this will be enormous, and will spread to many more countries. The collapse of our credit pyramid will be the driving factor and it will sweep all before it like a hurricane for at least the next several years. Beware.
http://theautomaticearth.blogspot.com/2011/08/august-27-2011-et-tu-commodities.html
Subprime:
Automatic earth maintains a deflationary viewpoint. As a open minded investor, you must consider well argued positions that conflict with your own thesis. I highly recommend you all read the entire article as it includes pretty charts and graphs. I maintain the view that central banks will continue to press on the monetary peddle until something goes terribly wrong.
Our most consistent theme here at The Automatic Earth has been the developing deflationary environment and the knock-on effects that will follow as a result. Now that the rally from March 2009 appears to be well and truly over, it is time to revisit aspects of the bigger picture, in order for people to prepare for a full-blown liquidity crunch. October 2007-March 2009 was merely a taster.
As we have explained before, inflation and deflation are monetary phenomena - respectively an increase and decrease in the supply of money plus credit relative to available goods and services - and are major drivers of price movements. They are not the only price drivers, to be sure, but they are usually the most significant. People generally focus on nominal prices, when understanding price drivers is far more important. A focus merely on nominal price also obscures what is happening to affordability - the comparison between price and purchasing power.
We have lived through some 30 years of inflationary times, since the financial liberalization of the early 1980s under Reagan and Thatcher initiated the era of globalization. Money freed from capital controls was free to look for opportunities worldwide, and the resulting global economic boom greatly increased trade, resource consumption, financial interconnectedness and the multiplier effect for monetary expansion.
The increased purchasing power that resulted, largely for the better off, found its way into asset markets around the world, allowing people to bid up prices. This created a psychological 'wealth effect', which spawned an orgy of consumption through borrowing against rising nominal assets values. This in turn led to greater monetary expansion, since money is lent into existence. Fractional reserve banking, securitization, the enormous expansion of the shadow banking system and many other factors acted as engines of monetary expansion.
This spiral of positive feedback started slowly, but gradually morphed into a global mania of epic proportions. Caution was thrown to the wind, debt expanded exponentially, risk multiplied, wealth concentration increased with higher returns to capital and consumption became almost frenetic where increasing purchasing power supported it. At the same time, rising consumer prices put increasing pressure on the less privileged, who were forced to compete for basic necessities becoming ever more expensive. As we have seen in a number of places, this has been a major ingredient in the development of social unrest. High prices, and fear of both higher prices and actual shortages, can be socially explosive.
Rising prices are not themselves inflation, as we have repeatedly explained, but are the result of it. Credit expansions create excess claims to underlying real wealth through the creation of artificial, or virtual, value. They also bring demand forward, increasing pressure on resources for the duration of the expansion period. Extrapolating consumption trends forwards linearly leads to fear of shortages, which encourages market participants to bid up prices speculatively.
However, being based on Ponzi dynamics, credit expansions and speculative manias are naturally self-limiting. Credit expansions proceed until the debt they generate can no longer be serviced, and there are no more willing borrowers and lenders to continue lending money into existence. Speculative manias continue until the greatest fool has committed himself to the exhausted trend, and no one remains to push prices up further.
As an expansion develops, one can generally expect increasing upward pressure on commodity prices, thanks to both demand stimulation and latterly the perception that prices can only continue to increase. The resulting crescendo of fear - of impending shortages - is accompanied by the parabolic price rise typical of speculative bubbles, as momentum chasing creates a self-fulfilling prophecy. At the point where almost everyone with the capacity to do so has jumped on the bandwagon, and all agree that the upward trend is set in stone, a trend change is typically imminent.
We find ourselves still near the peak of the largest credit bubble in history. As faith in many of the more spurious 'asset' classes devised by 'financial innovation' has been shaken, faith in the ever increasing value of commodities has strengthened. However, commodities are not immune to the effects of a shift from credit expansion to credit contraction, despite justifications for endless price rises, such as apparently bottomless demand from China and the other BRIC countries.
Every bubble is accompanied by the story that it is different this time, that this time prices are justified by fundamentals which can only propel prices ever upwards. It is never different this time, no matter what rationalizations exist for speculative fervour. BRIC demand only appears to be insatiable if we make our predictions solely by extrapolating past trends, but that approach leaves us blind to trend changes and therefore vulnerable to running off a cliff. Insatiable demand results from seemingly endless cheap credit, given that demand is not what one wants, but what one can pay for. When credit collapses, so will demand, and with it the justification for higher prices.
While credit expansion (inflation) is a powerful driver of increasing prices, credit contraction (deflation) is a far more powerful driver of decreasing prices. Credit, having no substance, is subject to abrupt fear-driven disappearance. Confidence and liquidity are synonymous, and confidence is once again evaporating quickly, as it did in phase one of the credit crunch (October 2007-March 2009). As contraction picks up momentum, the loss of credit will rapidly lead to liquidity crunch, drastically undermining price support for almost everything. With purchasing power in sharp retreat, however, lower prices will not lead to greater affordability. Purchasing power typically falls faster than price under such circumstances, so that almost everything becomes less affordable even as prices fall.
Credit expansion reversed in 2008, and this is deflation by definition. Despite the talked-up attempts to monetize debt through quantitative easing - a deliberate attempt to stoke inflation fears in order to counteract the psychology of deflation - money plus credit has been in net contraction. Talk of monetary growth based on only the money fraction misses the elephant in the room, since the vast majority of the effective money supply is credit, and the tightening of credit is by far the dominant factor.
Gold has been increasingly considered to be the ultimate safe haven. The certainty has been so great that prices rose by hundreds of dollars an ounce in a blow-off top over a mere two months. The speculative reversal currently underway should be rapid and devastating for the True Believers in gold's ability to defy gravity eternally. Expect to hear all about the enormous Ponzi scheme in paper gold, and a lot more about plated tungsten masquerading as gold. It doesn't even matter whether or not that rumor is true. What matters is whether or not people believe it, and how it could feed into a spiral of fear as prices fall.
Central banks are buying gold, which some consider to be a major vote of confidence, and therefore bullish for gold prices. However, it is instructive to look at the previous behavior of central banks in relation to gold prices. When gold hit its low point eleven years ago, after a long and drawn out decline, central bankers were selling, in an atmosphere where gold was dismissed as a mere industrial metal of little interest, or even as a 'barbarous relic'.
Selling by central banks, which are always one of the last parties to act on developing received wisdom, was actually a very strong contrarian signal that gold was bottoming. They would not have been selling if they had anticipated a major price run up, but central banks are reactive rather than proactive, and often suffer from considerable inertia. As a result they tend to be overtaken by events. Regarding them as omnipotent directors and acting accordingly is therefore very dangerous.
Now we are seeing the opposite scenario. After eleven years of increasingly sharp rise, central banks are finally buying, and they are doing so at a time when the received wisdom is that gold will continue to reach for the sky. Once again, central banks are issuing a strong contrarian signal, this time in the opposite direction. While commentators opine that central banks will hold their gold even if they develop an urgent need for cash, this is highly unlikely. In a deflationary environment, it is cash that is scarce, and cash that everyone, including central bankers, will be chasing. Selling gold to raise cash may well not be a matter of choice.
Typically a speculative bubble is followed by the reversal of speculation causing prices to fall, and then by falling demand, which undermines prices further. As the bubble unwinds, people begin to jump on a new bandwagon in the opposite direction, chasing momentum as always. The need to access cash by selling whatever can be sold (rather than what one might like to sell), and the on-going collapse of the effective money supply as credit tightens mercilessly, will also factor into the developing vicious circle.
Gold has been considered money for thousands of years, and will hold its value over the long term. However, this does not preclude a huge downward move in the shorter term, and for those forced to sell early, there is no longer term perspective. Spot prices will fall, but those with no bargaining power will get much less than the spot price if they are forced to sell into what is likely to be the ultimate buyers market during the next few years. They will never be able to buy back into the market, and would generally have been better off holding the cash that will appreciate in value for the few years of the credit collapse. Only those who can genuinely hold gold for the duration of the deleveraging, without having to rely on the value it represents in the meantime, will really be able to use it as a store of value.
We stand on the verge of a precipice. The effects of the first real liquidity crunch for decades will be profound. We are going to see prices fall across the board, but far fewer will be able to afford goods or assets at those lower prices than can currently afford them at today's lofty levels. The social effects of this will be enormous, and will spread to many more countries. The collapse of our credit pyramid will be the driving factor and it will sweep all before it like a hurricane for at least the next several years. Beware.
http://theautomaticearth.blogspot.com/2011/08/august-27-2011-et-tu-commodities.html
Subprime:
Automatic earth maintains a deflationary viewpoint. As a open minded investor, you must consider well argued positions that conflict with your own thesis. I highly recommend you all read the entire article as it includes pretty charts and graphs. I maintain the view that central banks will continue to press on the monetary peddle until something goes terribly wrong.
Some Thoughts On Current Events
To contact us Click HERE
The Markets:
For those that somewhat follow the markets it is obvious that volatility is the norm with 200 point pops and drops happening on a regular basis. The S&P hit a recent bottom of 1077 in October to then rally to 1290 and is now range bound bouncing between 1270 and 1215. The precious metals are in a tight trading range as they bounce and plunge from tightly defined ranges. Recent US economic data shows a upswing as initial jobless claims have come in under 400k for the past 3 weeks and regional manufacturing surveys have come in better than expected. For example, the Philly Fed Index plunged to -30 in September simply to bounce to +3 for the latest month. ISM data has also come in above the feared sub 50 point mark. Thus, the economy continues in stall speed while the demands of an exponential money system continue to put pressure on society. Grow or die, is the current meme. Yeah, well with WTI crude trading over $100 per barrel that's going to be a bit difficult.
The big story is the yield blow out in Europe as Spain has joined Italy and Greece in funding hell. Per Zerohedge, trillions of dollars worth of short term bonds will need to be issued in 2012, except this time with the market demanding much higher yields. For now the Wall Street crybabies are convinced the Germans will cave to the ponzi and permit the ECB to buy buy buy these wounded bonds, pushing yields lower and effectively kicking the can down the road for some time. Given Germany's fear of hyperinflation this will be a tough sell. However, because our modern liquidity system is so fucking fragile once the big banks start to sink they will panic and ultimately give in. Perhaps a 2500 point intraday selloff in the Dow will help change their minds. Yes, a debt crisis will be solved by issuing more debt LOL LOL.
The Law School Scam:
Not a week goes by without some news article being published on the woes of recent law grads. Nonetheless, prospective law students continue to believe that LS is a good investment. Incredible. While applications have fallen from their lofty heights there are still sufficient numbers of applicants willing to borrow the big bucks to have their chance at practicing law. If you fools only knew how terrible the job market is. Any prospective law student should check out JD Underground and see how real attorneys talk about the legal job market. The stories on the site will amaze you.
The OWS movement:
Cities and municipalities have lost their patience with the protesters and have begun their eviction actions. I expect a cool down during the winter months but a resumption of activities once the spring arrives. The fact remains that there simply aren't enough well paying jobs for recent grads owing mortgage sized student loans. I expect the class of 2012 to join in on the fun. Once the geezers start getting their entitlements cut expect to see them yelling and screaming as well. Of course the media will celebrate the lull in protest activity but these douches are to be ignored as their job is to perpetuate and serve the status quo at all costs. I've gotten to the point where I don't watch any mainstream "news" as their constant lies and obfuscations make me sick. Just today a co-worker told me that "the news said that the protesters are quitting because they haven't accomplished anything." Yes my dear, rely on their logic and reasoning. For those expecting quick results lets be clear that this is a battle between endemic corruption taking place in the superpower of the world. These criminals have the power to take down countries within weeks (read: Iraq, Afghanistan). They will not be uprooted overnight.
For those that somewhat follow the markets it is obvious that volatility is the norm with 200 point pops and drops happening on a regular basis. The S&P hit a recent bottom of 1077 in October to then rally to 1290 and is now range bound bouncing between 1270 and 1215. The precious metals are in a tight trading range as they bounce and plunge from tightly defined ranges. Recent US economic data shows a upswing as initial jobless claims have come in under 400k for the past 3 weeks and regional manufacturing surveys have come in better than expected. For example, the Philly Fed Index plunged to -30 in September simply to bounce to +3 for the latest month. ISM data has also come in above the feared sub 50 point mark. Thus, the economy continues in stall speed while the demands of an exponential money system continue to put pressure on society. Grow or die, is the current meme. Yeah, well with WTI crude trading over $100 per barrel that's going to be a bit difficult.
The big story is the yield blow out in Europe as Spain has joined Italy and Greece in funding hell. Per Zerohedge, trillions of dollars worth of short term bonds will need to be issued in 2012, except this time with the market demanding much higher yields. For now the Wall Street crybabies are convinced the Germans will cave to the ponzi and permit the ECB to buy buy buy these wounded bonds, pushing yields lower and effectively kicking the can down the road for some time. Given Germany's fear of hyperinflation this will be a tough sell. However, because our modern liquidity system is so fucking fragile once the big banks start to sink they will panic and ultimately give in. Perhaps a 2500 point intraday selloff in the Dow will help change their minds. Yes, a debt crisis will be solved by issuing more debt LOL LOL.
The Law School Scam:
Not a week goes by without some news article being published on the woes of recent law grads. Nonetheless, prospective law students continue to believe that LS is a good investment. Incredible. While applications have fallen from their lofty heights there are still sufficient numbers of applicants willing to borrow the big bucks to have their chance at practicing law. If you fools only knew how terrible the job market is. Any prospective law student should check out JD Underground and see how real attorneys talk about the legal job market. The stories on the site will amaze you.
The OWS movement:
Cities and municipalities have lost their patience with the protesters and have begun their eviction actions. I expect a cool down during the winter months but a resumption of activities once the spring arrives. The fact remains that there simply aren't enough well paying jobs for recent grads owing mortgage sized student loans. I expect the class of 2012 to join in on the fun. Once the geezers start getting their entitlements cut expect to see them yelling and screaming as well. Of course the media will celebrate the lull in protest activity but these douches are to be ignored as their job is to perpetuate and serve the status quo at all costs. I've gotten to the point where I don't watch any mainstream "news" as their constant lies and obfuscations make me sick. Just today a co-worker told me that "the news said that the protesters are quitting because they haven't accomplished anything." Yes my dear, rely on their logic and reasoning. For those expecting quick results lets be clear that this is a battle between endemic corruption taking place in the superpower of the world. These criminals have the power to take down countries within weeks (read: Iraq, Afghanistan). They will not be uprooted overnight.
Worse Than 2008
To contact us Click HERE
From Chris Martenson:
Worse Than 2008
There are clear signs of a liquidity crunch in the asset markets right now, and the question I keep hearing is, Is this 2008 all over again?
No, it’s worse. Much worse.
In 2008 there was a lot more faith and optimism upon which to draw. But both have been squandered to significant degrees by feckless regulators and authorities who failed to properly address any of the root causes of the first crisis even as they slathered layer after layer of thin-air money over many of the symptoms.
Anyone who has paid attention knows that those "magic potions" proved to be anything but. Not only are the root causes still with us (too much debt, vast regional financial imbalances, and high energy prices), but they have actually grown worse the entire time.
As always, we have no idea exactly what is going to happen and when, but we can track the various stresses and strains, noting that more and wider fingers of instability increase the risk of a major event. Heading into 2012, there's enough data to warrant maintaining an extremely cautious stance regarding holding onto one's wealth and increasing one's preparations towards resilience.
Here’s the evidence:
* Oil prices higher now than in 2009
* Derivatives up more than $100 trillion since 2009
* Government debts exploding
* Weak GDP growth
* Europe in trouble
* Small investors leaving the market
* China hitting a wall
One of the most important things we need to track is simply untrackable, and that is market perception. When faith in a faith-based money system vanishes, the game is pretty much over.
If you have been reading my work (or anyone else's) with a decent macro view, you likely lost your faith in the system a while ago and marvel that it can continue along for another moment, let alone all the years it has been creaking towards its eventual date with reality. But along it creaks, day after day, week after week, and month after month, threatening to wear down the observant and vigilant before finally letting go.
2012 promises to be an interesting year, with more than $10 trillion in funding and rollover financing required to keep the developed world floating along. But where will that funding come from? The lesson from defunct economies is “not internally!” And if China’s recent slowdowns and projections of an even more lackluster 2012 come true, then we might also scratch a few external sources off the list as well.
Oil Prices
As Gregor recently penned so eloquently for us, high oil prices are like sand in the gearbox of the economy -- they represent the most serious form of friction there is. Rather astutely, Jim Puplava has called oil prices 'the new Fed Funds rate,' meaning that the traditional role of the Federal Reserve in regulating the economy via the price of money has been usurped by oil.
As oil prices go up, the economy slows down, and vice versa.
The simple fact is that oil prices remain quite elevated by historical standards, and since the correction in 2008, they have been ratcheting steadily higher each year. They are now at their highest average rate in three years. In round dollar terms, oil is $30/bbl higher than in 2009 and $10/bbl than in 2010.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/guest-post-worse-2008
Subprime: hey guys. Haven't posted in some time been super busy. This article must be read in its entirety in order to understand the headwinds facing the global economy in 2012. I hope Martenson is wrong on this one but FACTS are FACTS.
Worse Than 2008
There are clear signs of a liquidity crunch in the asset markets right now, and the question I keep hearing is, Is this 2008 all over again?
No, it’s worse. Much worse.
In 2008 there was a lot more faith and optimism upon which to draw. But both have been squandered to significant degrees by feckless regulators and authorities who failed to properly address any of the root causes of the first crisis even as they slathered layer after layer of thin-air money over many of the symptoms.
Anyone who has paid attention knows that those "magic potions" proved to be anything but. Not only are the root causes still with us (too much debt, vast regional financial imbalances, and high energy prices), but they have actually grown worse the entire time.
As always, we have no idea exactly what is going to happen and when, but we can track the various stresses and strains, noting that more and wider fingers of instability increase the risk of a major event. Heading into 2012, there's enough data to warrant maintaining an extremely cautious stance regarding holding onto one's wealth and increasing one's preparations towards resilience.
Here’s the evidence:
* Oil prices higher now than in 2009
* Derivatives up more than $100 trillion since 2009
* Government debts exploding
* Weak GDP growth
* Europe in trouble
* Small investors leaving the market
* China hitting a wall
One of the most important things we need to track is simply untrackable, and that is market perception. When faith in a faith-based money system vanishes, the game is pretty much over.
If you have been reading my work (or anyone else's) with a decent macro view, you likely lost your faith in the system a while ago and marvel that it can continue along for another moment, let alone all the years it has been creaking towards its eventual date with reality. But along it creaks, day after day, week after week, and month after month, threatening to wear down the observant and vigilant before finally letting go.
2012 promises to be an interesting year, with more than $10 trillion in funding and rollover financing required to keep the developed world floating along. But where will that funding come from? The lesson from defunct economies is “not internally!” And if China’s recent slowdowns and projections of an even more lackluster 2012 come true, then we might also scratch a few external sources off the list as well.
Oil Prices
As Gregor recently penned so eloquently for us, high oil prices are like sand in the gearbox of the economy -- they represent the most serious form of friction there is. Rather astutely, Jim Puplava has called oil prices 'the new Fed Funds rate,' meaning that the traditional role of the Federal Reserve in regulating the economy via the price of money has been usurped by oil.
As oil prices go up, the economy slows down, and vice versa.
The simple fact is that oil prices remain quite elevated by historical standards, and since the correction in 2008, they have been ratcheting steadily higher each year. They are now at their highest average rate in three years. In round dollar terms, oil is $30/bbl higher than in 2009 and $10/bbl than in 2010.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/guest-post-worse-2008
Subprime: hey guys. Haven't posted in some time been super busy. This article must be read in its entirety in order to understand the headwinds facing the global economy in 2012. I hope Martenson is wrong on this one but FACTS are FACTS.
Post of the day
To contact us Click HERE
Saw this on zerohedge:
private workers are like gladiators who get a "prize" if they manage to kill each other only to live to fight another day.
public workers are spectators in a gladiator match....they don't get the glory of victory, but have the security of enjoying the competition without having to participate in such a brutal cutthroat activity.
elites are the ones making the bets on a gladiator
and wall st. workers are the bookies
there is the loyalty old money folks writing the rules of the game at the very top
and of course immigrants and foreign laborers are slave class where they do real productive work but can't afford to pay to see the gladiators.
private workers are like gladiators who get a "prize" if they manage to kill each other only to live to fight another day.
public workers are spectators in a gladiator match....they don't get the glory of victory, but have the security of enjoying the competition without having to participate in such a brutal cutthroat activity.
elites are the ones making the bets on a gladiator
and wall st. workers are the bookies
there is the loyalty old money folks writing the rules of the game at the very top
and of course immigrants and foreign laborers are slave class where they do real productive work but can't afford to pay to see the gladiators.
Dealing with post graduation depression
To contact us Click HERE
Been quite some time since I've posted. Some massive changes have taken place since the spring and I've done quite a bit of soul searching. The answers that I found have been interesting and would like to share some of those with all of you. Despite the constant protests from the media whores we all very well understand that the real economy, and not the one demonstrated by the juiced up S&P 500 index, continues to languish in a modern day depression. An economy that the powers that be desperately want to sugarcoat and hide the truth from the people. Sadly, there are many out there that continue to believe that things are ok and that if only they were "smarter" or "better" that they would be in a better position than they find themselves in. This cognitive dissonance continues to wreak havoc in many homes across the nation. Last year I found myself completely engulfed in the rat race. Focusing my time and energy on all the wrong things. Found myself angry with my position in life. Frustrated, at my so called lack of progress. Putting myself down for not being in a better position financially than I "should" have been. All this misdirected focus and energy led to me not taking care of myself and my significant other. I let my personal relationships flounder and found myself isolated and alone. Depressed, basically. I vainly attempted to put on a brave face but truth be told I was fucking miserable when I shouldn't been. In my short term depression I found myself feeling something that I hadn't felt in a very long time. I gave up. I stopped caring. For the first time in recent memory I completely stopped giving fuck about anything. All the websites I used to frequent I effectively abandoned. Market dropped? Meh. The FED refrained from additional bond purchases? Who fucking cares. Obama leading in the polls? And what does that mean for me? And it was exactly at this point when I began to see what little things I had. When you lose something dear to you, only then, can you truly appreciate what you DO have. For the first time in a long time I valued and appreciated my health. So what did I do? I hit the ground running, literally. I lost 25 pounds and am in the best shape of my life. Began to appreciate the fact that I had a job. Started taking better care of my files. Took better pride in my job. Started reconnecting with old friends again and made new ones in the process. Basically, a healthier appreciation of life. Am I in the financial position that I "should" be in? I don't know anymore. It is what it is. I know there are others that are doing better while there are others that are doing way worse. I no longer use this metric anymore. Now, I focus on ME. The things that I can control. I don't have any control over what this person or that persons life entails. But I DO have control over what happens in my life. I can control whether I eat a fatty fucking double cheeseburger or a fish salad. I can control whether I take the time to contemplate some excellent interrogatories on a slip and fall case or I can sit there being miserable that I'm in the trenches and not in some biglaw firm. I can control whether I sit on my ass for four hours straight or go for a nice 30 minute run and burn off excess calories. And for those of us that can go for that run, we should appreciate the fact that we CAN in fact run whereas so many others can't due to physical ailments. I know plenty of folks that are victims of the law school scam. Some are happy, others are indifferent, others are fucking miserable. The miserable ones tend to have something in common: they keep focusing on what OTHERS have. This guy is a cop and makes X, or this girl is a union worker and makes Y. Guess what, you chose otherwise. Snap out of it and DEAL with it otherwise your entire life will flash by and before you know you will be 50 years old, except this time even more miserable then you were before. So whenever you are feeling down about your lot in life, take a step back and appreciate the things you do have. Because before you know, what little you do have can be taken away from you. Stop focusing on what others have and focus on yourself. The struggle is immense but at least by fighting, by doing something about it, you give yourself the opportunity to make something happen. And if you fail try again. And in the end, if you do fail, at least you know you did the best you could. And if you succeed, then hopefully I'll see you one day on the slopes at Mammoth Mountain :)Peace
27 Eylül 2012 Perşembe
How will Asian stock market september 27 2012
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How will Asian stock market september 27 2012 : Asian shares are set for another weak start on Thursday after U.S. stocks fell overnight as protests in Spain and Greece over euro zone austerity measures raised fresh concerns over Europe's ability to get its debt crisis under control.
Japan's Nikkei average is seen slipping as concerns over global growth are likely to weigh on sentiment.
The Nikkei ended 184.84 points down at 8,906.70 on Wednesday, breaking below its 25-day moving average at 8,983.84. The broader Topix index lost 2 percent to 742.54.
All Nippon Airways' could come under pressure following a report the number of seat cancellations on its Japan-China routes roughly totaled 40,000 in September, amid heightened tension between the two Asian neighbors over a territorial dispute.
Toyota Motor's shares are likely to decline after it pushed to 2015 its target to reach 1.0 million unit sales per year in Europe due to the euro-zone debt crisis, but the Japanese car giant still expected to meet its target of becoming profitable this fiscal year thanks to an early restructuring of its European operations.
Seoul shares are expected to decline at the open as worries about the health of the global economy continue to preoccupy investors.
The Korea Composite Stock Price Index (KOSPI) ended down 0.6 percent to 1,980.44 points on Wednesday, its lowest closing level in nearly two weeks.
Samsung Electronics will be on investors' radar on a report it appeared to be busy gathering ammunition to overturn a recent billion-dollar verdict from a U.S. federal court that Samsung “willfully” infringed Apple’s [AAPL 665.18 -8.36 (-1.24%) ] software patents.
“Juror misconduct” is the latest argument from the Suwon-based electronics maker, reported the Korean Herald, which alleges that the foreman of the nine-member panel which deliberated on the high-stakes patent battle with Apple failed to reveal his previous involvement in a litigation with a Samsung-affiliated company. The foreman, Velvin Hogan, also had extensive tech knowledge that likely influenced the other jurors, according to Samsung’s attorneys.
Construction-related stocks will be closely watched after the construction affiliate of the Woongjin Group, a mid-tier conglomerate, was declared bankrupt Wednesday and filed an application to undergo a court-managed workout program.
The move is expected to strike a severe blow to the group, which is already suffering from a liquidity shortage. Woongjin Holdings also filed for court receivership with the Seoul Central District Court the same day, saying it was the only option to save the entire group. The sale of water purifier maker Woongjin Coway to local private equity fund MBK Partners was "halted" after the holding company filed for court receivership.
Australian shares are set to open lower, held hostage to offshore markets again.
Investor confidence was also dented by a slowdown in China, Australia's top iron ore consumer, as China steel futures fell on Wednesday for the first time in three sessions, putting more pressure on spot iron ore prices.
BHP Billiton will be in the frame. It has asked the South Australian state government to extend a December deadline to October 2016 for the company to approve an expansion of its Olympic Dam copper and uranium mine.
The top global miner scrapped a $20 billion-plus plan to expand the mine in August, saying its proposal to dig an open pit was too expensive and it was going to start from scratch to find a cheaper way to extract copper.
Local share price index futures fell 0.5 percent, or 21 points, to 4,361.6, a 15.6 point discount to the underlying S&P/ASX 200 index [AU;XJO 4361.60 --- UNCH ]. The benchmark fell 0.3 percent on Wednesday.
New Zealand's benchmark NZX 50 index was flat at 3,808.2 in early trade
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asian stock market drops 9/27/2012
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asian stock market drops 9/27/2012 : Most Asian stocks fell as data from the U.S. to Italy added to concern that global economic growth is waning and Spanish borrowing costs soared amid violent protests against austerity measures.
Canon Inc. (7751), a Japanese camera maker that gets 80 percent of sales offshore, fell 1.9 percent. BHP Billiton Ltd., the world’s largest mining company, lost 0.4 percent as metals prices declined. Renesas Electronics Corp. (6723) advanced 3.6 percent after Kyodo reported a government-backed counter offer for the chipmaker may be double an earlier bid by KKR & Co.
The MSCI Asia Pacific (MXAP) Index slid 0.2 percent to 121.32 as of 9:12 a.m. in Tokyo, before markets in China and Hong Kong open, with more than two shares falling for every one that rose. The gauge climbed 3.7 percent this quarter through yesterday as central banks in Europe, the U.S., Japan and China took action to stimulate economic growth.
“Economic data is not improving,A sudden economic rebound would come close to a miracle and agreements on fiscal policy will be much harder to achieve than the recent monetary policy decisions.”
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soybeans, wheat , Corn futures prices for 9/27 2012
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soybeans, wheat , Corn futures prices for 9/27 2012, U.S. soybeans rose on Thursday to hover below $16 a bushel, as investors looked for bargains following declines in the previous session when renewed concerns over the euro zone debt crisis and the record pace of the U.S.
harvest dragged on prices.
Corn, which hit a near three-month low on Wednesday, and wheat both climbed as well.
Grains Fundaamentals Forecast september 27 2012
* Chicago Board Of Trade November soybeans gained 0.48 percent to $15.80-1/2 a bushel, after closing down 2.39 percent on Wednesday.
* December corn rose 0.21 percent to $7.26-1/4 a bushel, after falling 2.56 percent in the previous session.
* December wheat climbed 0.4 percent to $8.72-3/4 a bushel, having closed up 1.95 percent on Wednesday.
* Corn futures were weighed by U.S. crude oil falling 1.5 percent and ethanol production in the United States slumping 3 percent last week to a two-month low.
* Analysts polled by Reuters expect U.S. corn and soybean stocks as of Sept. 1 to be the lowest in eight years at the end of the 2011/12 season (Sept/Aug).
* China's corn imports are expected to drop just over 60 percent next year, according to a Reuters poll.
* Egypt's state grains buyer purchased 300,000 tonnes of Romanian and French wheat in a snap tender. It did not buy any wheat from Russia, which has been a major supplier to the country in the past month.
* The absence of Russian wheat sales could reinforce speculation that one of the world's top wheat exporters is running out of supplies for export after a drought slashed its harvest this year.
MARKET NEWS
* The euro was at two-week lows on Thursday, having suffered a third day of declines as violent protests against austerity measures in the streets of Madrid and Athens highlighted the challenges facing highly-indebted euro zone countries.
* Crude oil prices fell on Wednesday as the euro zone debt crisis escalated, while U.S. gasoline futures jumped more than 3 percent due to depressed inventories and supply uncertainty.
* The S&P 500 fell for a fifth straight trading day on
Wednesday.
DATA/EVENTS (GMT)
0755 Germany Unemployment rate
0900 Euro zone Business climate
0900 Euro zone Economic sentiment
1230 U.S. Weekly jobless claims
1230 U.S. Final Q2 GDP
1230 U.S. Durable goods orders
1230 U.S. Chicago Fed Midwest manufacturing index
1400 U.S. Pending home sales
For the latest updates on the stock market, PRESS CTR + D or visit Stock Market Today
harvest dragged on prices.
Corn, which hit a near three-month low on Wednesday, and wheat both climbed as well.
Grains Fundaamentals Forecast september 27 2012
* Chicago Board Of Trade November soybeans gained 0.48 percent to $15.80-1/2 a bushel, after closing down 2.39 percent on Wednesday.
* December corn rose 0.21 percent to $7.26-1/4 a bushel, after falling 2.56 percent in the previous session.
* December wheat climbed 0.4 percent to $8.72-3/4 a bushel, having closed up 1.95 percent on Wednesday.
* Corn futures were weighed by U.S. crude oil falling 1.5 percent and ethanol production in the United States slumping 3 percent last week to a two-month low.
* Analysts polled by Reuters expect U.S. corn and soybean stocks as of Sept. 1 to be the lowest in eight years at the end of the 2011/12 season (Sept/Aug).
* China's corn imports are expected to drop just over 60 percent next year, according to a Reuters poll.
* Egypt's state grains buyer purchased 300,000 tonnes of Romanian and French wheat in a snap tender. It did not buy any wheat from Russia, which has been a major supplier to the country in the past month.
* The absence of Russian wheat sales could reinforce speculation that one of the world's top wheat exporters is running out of supplies for export after a drought slashed its harvest this year.
MARKET NEWS
* The euro was at two-week lows on Thursday, having suffered a third day of declines as violent protests against austerity measures in the streets of Madrid and Athens highlighted the challenges facing highly-indebted euro zone countries.
* Crude oil prices fell on Wednesday as the euro zone debt crisis escalated, while U.S. gasoline futures jumped more than 3 percent due to depressed inventories and supply uncertainty.
* The S&P 500 fell for a fifth straight trading day on
Wednesday.
DATA/EVENTS (GMT)
0755 Germany Unemployment rate
0900 Euro zone Business climate
0900 Euro zone Economic sentiment
1230 U.S. Weekly jobless claims
1230 U.S. Final Q2 GDP
1230 U.S. Durable goods orders
1230 U.S. Chicago Fed Midwest manufacturing index
1400 U.S. Pending home sales
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impact protests in Greece and Spanish on stock market
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impact protests in Greece and Spanish on stock market : Europe's fragile financial calm was shattered Wednesday as investors worried that violent anti-austerity protests in Greece and Spain's debt troubles showed that the continent still cannot contain its financial crisis.
Police fired tear gas Wednesday at rioters hurling gasoline bombs and chunks of marble during Greece's largest anti-austerity demonstration in six months. The protests were part of a 24-hour general strike, the latest test for Greece's nearly four-month-old coalition government and the new spending cuts it plans to push through.
The brief but intense clashes by several hundred rioters among the 60,000 people protesting in Athens came a day after anti-austerity protests rocked the Spanish capital.
In Madrid, thousands of angry protesters again swarmed as close as they could get Wednesday night to Parliament, watched by a heavy contingent of riot police. There was no fresh violence, but the demonstrators cut off traffic on one of the city's major thoroughfares at the height of the evening commute.
The protesters chanted for the release of 34 people detained Tuesday night in clashes that injured 64 others. They also demanded new elections to oust Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy and his conservative government, which has imposed cutbacks and tax hikes, deepening the gloom in a country struggling with recession and unemployment of nearly 25 percent, the highest among the 17 nations using the common euro currency.
Spain's central bank warned Wednesday the country's economy continues to shrink "significantly," sending the Spanish stock index tumbling and its borrowing costs rising.
Across Europe, stock markets fell as well. Germany's DAX dropped 2 percent while the CAC-40 in France fell 2.4 percent and Britain's FTSE 100 slid 1.4 percent. The euro was also hit, down a further 0.3 percent at $1.2840.
The turmoil Wednesday ended weeks of relative calm and optimism among investors that Europe and eurozone might have turned a corner. Markets have been breathing easier since the European Central Bank said earlier this month it would buy unlimited amounts of government bonds to help countries with their debts.
The move by the ECB helped lower borrowing costs for indebted governments from levels that only two months ago threatened to bankrupt Spain and Italy. Stocks also rose. Media speculation about the timing and cost of a eurozone breakup or a departure by troubled Greece faded.
However, the economic reality in Europe remained dire. Several countries have had to impose harsh new spending cuts, tax rises and economic reforms to meet European deficit targets and, in Greece's case, to continue getting vital aid. The austerity has hit citizens with wage cuts and fewer services, and left their economies struggling through recessions as reduced government spending has undermined growth.
"Yesterday's anti-austerity protests in Madrid, together with today's 24-hour strike in Greece, are both reminders that rampant unemployment and a general collapse in living standards make people desperate and angry," said David Morrison, senior market strategist at GFT Markets.
"There are growing concerns that the situation across the eurozone is set to take a turn for the worse," he said.
Spain has struggled for months to convince investors that it can handle its debts. The government is to unveil an austere 2013 draft budget and new economic reforms Thursday. Many believe they could be a precursor to a request for financial help from the ECB. The government has already introduced €65 billion ($83.5 billion) in austerity measures designed to bring down its deficit.
The country is suffering its second recession in three years, with a predicted 1.5 percent economic contraction in 2012. The Bank of Spain warned Wednesday the recession could be deeper.
Spain has come under pressure to tap the ECB bond-buying program that has been partly designed to keep a lid on the country's borrowing costs. So far, the government has been reluctant to ask for help for fear of the conditions that may be attached.
Spain's IBEX stock exchange fell in 4 percent on Wednesday while the interest rate on its 10-year bonds rose 0.26 percentage points to 5.99 percent on concerns about the country's economy and that it is taking too long to make up its mind about applying for ECB assistance.
"The demonstrations remind us that central bankers cannot solve the crisis alone. The ECB's plan to intervene in sovereign bond markets can only succeed if governments in crisis countries can convince their electorates that ongoing austerity and reform are necessary to avoid bankruptcy," said Martin Koehring of the Economist Intelligence Unit.
"This, however, is increasingly challenging without the return of economic growth."
Greece, meanwhile, has been dependent since May 2010 on billions of euros in two rescue loan packages from other eurozone countries and the International Monetary Fund. In return, it slashed salaries and pensions and hiked taxes in an effort to reform an economy derailed by decades of overspending and corruption.
Although Greece accounts for only about 2 percent of the eurozone's total economy, its crisis has shaken the euro and led to concern it could destabilize other, much larger economies in the 17-nation bloc. Greece is in its fifth year of recession, with unemployment above 24 percent.
Shortly before Greece's strike got under way, Prime Minister Antonis Samaras and Finance Minister Yannis Stournaras hammered out a €11.5 billion ($14.9 billion) package of spending cuts for 2013-14 demanded by the country's international lenders, along with another €2 billion in improved tax collection.
The government has struggled to come up with austerity measures acceptable to the country's creditors, with disagreements arising between the three coalition parties. The next payment of €31 billion hinges on the further cuts.
Stournaras was briefing the other two party leaders Wednesday, and Samaras was to meet with them Thursday morning. If they agree, the package will be presented to Greece's debt inspectors.
Wednesday's strike shut down Greece's famed Acropolis and halted flights for hours. Ferry services were suspended, schools, shops and gas stations were closed and hospitals functioned on emergency staff.
Government spokesman Simos Kedikoglou said the limited violence and what he called a smaller turnout than opposition parties had hoped for showed that "Greek society understands what the government is doing is the only possible solution."
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Crude oil futures prices september 27 2012
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Crude oil futures prices september 27 2012 ; Crude oil futures rebounded from an earlier selloff in Asian trading on Thursday, posting healthy gains after bottom fishers felt weak U.S. housing data and ongoing European uncertainty sent the commodity falling too far.
On the New York Mercantile Exchange, light, sweet crude futures for delivery in November traded at USD90.31 a barrel on Thursday, up 0.37%, off from a session high of USD90.41 and up from an earlier session low of USD90.17.
In the U.S. earlier, the Census Bureau reported that new home sales fell to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 373,000 in August from 374,000 in July, whose figure was revised up from 372,000.
Analysts had expected new home sales to rise to 380,000 in August.
The news sent investors selling oil, a growth-sensitive commodity, on concerns the U.S. still faces headwinds, especially in the housing sector, which threw the country into a recession more than four years ago and continues to dampen recovery.
Meanwhile in Europe, protests broke out in the streets of Madrid on Wednesday before the Spanish government's plans to unveil new austerity measures to accompany the country's 2013 budget later Thursday.
Yields on Spain's benchmark 10-year government bond topped 6 percent earlier on concerns the country will run into problems financing itself.
Spain has yet to request a bailout, though the country has said it will meet its budgetary goals. Still, bullish U.S. housing data hit the wire only a day earlier, which gave oil room to rise.
The Standard & Poor’s/Case Shiller House Price Index showed that home price in 20 cities rose 1.2% in July of this year compared with the same month a year ago.
Analysts had expected the closely watched gauge on home prices to rise 1.0% in July.
Elsewhere, the Conference Board, an industry group, reported that its U.S. consumer confidence index rose to 70.3 in September from an upwardly revised 61.3 in August.
September's reading was the highest since February and outpacing analysts' calls for a 63.0 reading.
Meanwhile, the U.S. Energy Information Administration said in its weekly report earlier that U.S. crude oil inventories fell by 2.45 million barrels last week, way off from market calls for a increase of 920,00 barrels.
The U.S. is the world’s biggest oil-consuming country, responsible for almost 22% of global oil demand.
On the ICE Futures Exchange, Brent oil futures for November delivery were up 0.19% and trading at USD110.25 a barrel, up USD19.94 from its U.S. counterpart.
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26 Eylül 2012 Çarşamba
US New Home Sales report september 26 2012
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US New Home Sales report september 26 2012 : In the US, New Home Sales, Value the annualized number of new homes that were sold on the previous month; 381K is expected now from 372K on August.
Later in the US, Crude Oil Inventories, weekly report to measure the commercial crude oil barrels that are held in inventory, 8.5M is due similar to the last week. Sales of new homes likely rose again in August, further evidence of a sustained recovery in housing.
The expectation was that sales of new homes increased to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 380,000 in August, according to a survey by FactSet. The Commerce Department will release the report at 10 a.m. EDT.
In July, sales of new homes had increased 3.6 percent to an annual rate of 372,000, matching the May level. Both months were the highest since April 2010 when housing sales were being boosted by temporary government tax credits for home buyers.
In the 12 months through July, sales of new homes were up 25 percent. But even with the increases, new home sales remain well below the annual pace of 700,000 that economists consider healthy.
The house market is making a modest but steady recovery, helped by the Federal Reserve's efforts to give the economy a boost through lower interest rates. The Fed earlier this month announced a third round of bond buying in an effort to stimulate the economy and attack unemployment which has been stuck above 8 percent since early 2009.
Sales of previously occupied homes jumped in August to the highest level since May 2010. Builder confidence is at a six-year high and construction of single-family homes rose last month to the fastest annual rate in more than two years. However, even with the gains, home sales and construction remain well below healthy levels.
Home sales have been bolstered by the lowest mortgage rates on record. The average rate on the 30-year fixed mortgage touched a record low of 3.49 percent last week. The rate has been below 4 percent all year. Some economists are forecasting that the Fed's new program to $40 billion a month in mortgage backed securities will push 30-year mortgages down close to 3 percent in coming months.
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Coach share price forecast 2013
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Coach share price forecast 2013, Coach earnings per share estimate 2013 ; Recent increase at Coach’s share price is getting analysts and investors aback, as it is perceived by recent downgrades of the luxury handbags makers’ stock. After Brean Murray, Credit Suisse has lowered its recommendation to ‘neutral’
Despite earlier in September Morgan Stanley stated that management commentary suggests that Q3 remains on track and the firm is positive regarding Coach’s strategy details and still views the shares as attractive, the American firm gave Coach an 'Overweight' rating.
Less than ten days later, the stock is again commented in Wall Street, being analysts at Credit Suisse the last to add to the stock recent downgrades. As they stress, the stock has risen more than 20 percent since Coach reported fourth quarter results on July 31, 2012. That compares to a gain of 5.9 percent for the S&P 500.
As a result, the shares are now trading at 15x Credit Suisse’s 2013 earnings per share estimate of 4.14 dollars. Analyst Christian Buss explained in a note to clients that “We have increasing concerns about heightening competitive pressures on Coach as footwear, accessories and beauty categories gain shelf space across retail concepts.”
In addition, Pennystocksinsiders.com found company insiders sold 6,761 shares in the last three months, at stock price 56.76 dollars each.
Share prices of Coach have traded as high as 79.70 dollars per share and as low as 48.24 dollars in the past 52 weeks. Its price, as of the latest close, was up 17percent compared with the 52-week low and was 41percent below the 52-week high. The company's market capitalization after the recent close was 16.15 billion dollars.
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Italian, Spanish 10 year bonds outlook 9/26 2012
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Italian, Spanish 10 year bonds outlook 9/26 2012 : As expected, the Italian 10yr has formed an inverse head and shoulders pattern after rejecting the 4.94% level (the 150% Fibonacci projection from the Dec'11 rally), which suggests higher yields for the week targeting 5.31%/5.38% onto 5.53%, on the caveat of a sustained break below 4.93%."Furthermore, "
The Spanish 10yr bonds seems to be forming a double-bottom movement with targets of 6.35% continuing towards 6.50%. We look for a sustained break below 5.54% to cancel this view.
Additionally, we recommend setting up shorts as market entered our selling region of 5.56-5.70% targeting 6.05% onto 6.35% and 6.50% on a stop as a sustained break below 5.50%." he suggests.
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Effect Spanish recession on stock market
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Effect Spanish recession on stock market : Markets across Europe have dropped after official figures revealed the Spanish recession has deepened at a "significant pace" in the third quarter.
In midday trading the FTSE 100 was 1.12% down, Spain's Ibex 3.13%, France's Cac 2.03%, Italy's MIB 2.78% and Germany's Dax was down 1.59%.
The slide follows the Bank of Spain's description of the nation being in a "deep recession".
It also prompted a climb in the Spanish 10-year bond yield rate to above 6%, and comes just hours after mass arrests of protesters in Madrid.
"Available data for the third quarter of the year suggest output continued to fall at a significant pace, in an environment in which financial tension remained at very high levels," the bank said in a monthly report.
The eurozone's fourth largest economy tumbled into recession in the last quarter of 2011, less than two years after emerging from the previous downturn, according to official data.
In the second quarter of this year the economy posted a 0.4% contraction - after showing declines of 0.3% in the previous two quarters - and the unemployment rate hit 24.6%.
Youth unemployment remains far above the general jobless level.
Spain's government is expecting an economic decline of 1.5% this year, and another 0.5% in 2013, but even those grim figures are considered optimistic by many analysts.
The International Monetary Fund has predicted economic declines of 1.7% in 2012 and 1.2% in 2013.
On Tuesday, Spain's borrowing costs surged in a short-term debt auction as the government resisted pressure to rapidly seek a full-blown sovereign bailout.
But borrowing costs, which had declined in previous weeks after the European Central Bank outlined plans to buy the bonds of stricken eurozone states, climbed sharply in the sale of three and six-month bills.
Spain has cut a deal with the European Union for a rescue loan of up to 100bn euro (£80bn) for banks hobbled by bad loans extended before its damaging 2008 property market crash.
But it has refused to be rushed into seeking a full-blown sovereign bailout until it knows the imposed conditions.
The yield rise above 6% comes a day before the Spanish government is expected to unveil its austerity cut plans.
On Friday, the country's bank stress test results are due to be revealed.
Political uncertainty continues to grow because of regional elections on October 21, and the decision for snap elections to be held in economic powerhouse Catalonia - responsible for about 20% of Spain's GDP.
The Catalonia vote on November 25 is seen by many as a crucial test of the region's separatist sentiment and risks sparking a full-blown constitutional crisis.
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How will Wheat Crop Insurance in 2013
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How will Wheat Crop Insurance in 2013 : Changes in wheat insurance in 2013 are as follows:
1) the Trend Adjustment (TA) yield endorsement will be available for wheat in some counties in 2013,
2) projected prices are higher in 2013 compared to 2012,
3) volatilities are lower in 2013 compared to 2012, and
4) wheat premiums differ in 2013 as compared to 2012. After discussing these changes, suggestions for 2013 are given.
Change in 2013 Wheat Crop Insurance
The TA yield endorsement will allow farmers to increased yields used in calculating crop insurance guarantees (see here). Each county for which the TA yield endorsement is available has a county trend adjustment. This county trend adjustment will be used to adjust each yield in a unit's yield history. The county yield adjustment in Washington County, Illinois is .57 bushels per acre. Given a consecutive ten-year history, the TA yield will be 3.8 bushels higher than the Actual Production History (APH) yield in Washington County. Virtually all producers will find the TA yield endorsement advantageous. Use of the TA endorsement does not increase the insurance premium given the same per acre guarantee level. Often use of the TA yield endorsement lowers premium for the same guarantee level per acre.
The projected price for wheat in 2013 is $8.57 per bushel. The $8.57 price is $.37 per bushel higher than the 2012 price of $8.20 per bushel. For the same coverage level, a higher projected price will increase per acre guarantees. Take an approved yield of 59 bushels per acre and a 75 percent coverage level. The guarantee in 2013 is $379 per acre ($379 = 59 bushel approved yield x $8.57 projected price x 75 percent coverage level) compared to a 2012 guarantee of $363 per acre ($363 = 59 bushel approved yield x $8.20 projected price x 75 percent coverage level). The higher projected price also will increase insurance premium.
The volatility in 2013 is .25 compared to .27 in 2012. The lower volatility in 2013 will lower premiums in 2013; however, the higher projected price and changes in underlying rates can offset premium reductions from a lower volatility.
Farmer-paid premium changes between 2012 and 2013 are mixed. Table 1 shows premiums in 2012 and 2013 for Washington County, Illinois. For the same coverage level, Revenue Protection (RP) premiums in 2013 are higher than in 2012. However the guarantees implied by each coverage level are higher in 2013 due to a higher projected price. Even given the same projected price and volatility, Washington County RP premiums would be higher in 2013 due to changes in insurance rates. Group Risk Income Plan with the harvest price option (GRIP-HR) has lower premiums in 2013 as compared to 2012.
Suggestions for 2013
Even given the above changes, general guidance for crop insurance choices does not differ from previous years. If RP or another plan within the COMBO product is selected, use of the TA yield endorsement is warranted. Use of a crop insurance product with the harvest price option seems prudent, meaning that many producers will choose RP or GRIP-HR. The choice between RP and GRIP-HR may come down to one of preferences: individuals more concerned about yield losses likely will find RP better while producers concerned with price declines likely with find GRIP-HR more appropriate. Weighing the higher premiums associated with GRIP-HR likely will also enter into the choice between RP and GRIP-HR. High coverage levels may be advisable, given the possibility that prices could fall.
wheat prices forecast 2013, how will wheat prices 2013, crop insurance 2013, Farmer-paid premium changes between 2012 and 2013, wheat volatility in 2013
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25 Eylül 2012 Salı
Art Cashin Correctly Identifies August 1971 As the Date of Our Downfall
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1 September 2012
Art Cashin recently identified August 1971 as "the most disastrous moment in US history." I concur.
His article is here:
The Most Disastrous Moment In US Economic History Occured In August 1971
My comments to other readers (whom I thought missed the point of the discussion) are here:
Uh. I think we are forgetting the real question here. Do we want our currency to be stable in value, or to be a plaything of the central banks and politicians? I for one opt for the former. Fixing the currency to something real of course achieves that purpose more effectively than any other known strategy.
Humans are still emotional, so the gold standard doesn't "fix" problems, rather, it prevents their development, and that is what is at issue here. When the currency is unstable, the citizenry are literally forced into speculative assets as a means of preserving wealth. You don't have to agree on all points with Mises to see that easy money promotes capital misallocation, as we've had boatloads of that since at least the Vietnam war, and in spades since the advent of the Greenspan/Bernanke era.
Would preserving the gold standard have created a "perfect" financial world? Of course not. But we would have averted the worst of the excesses of the past 4 decades, and savers/investors, rather than speculators and manipulators, would have been rewarded.
The current US economy is hugely allocated to the practice of financial management (and law). Doug Casey identifies financial management alone as accounting for roughly 22% of the US economy (it should be more on the order of 1%). This is because value is being destroyed everywhere, and savers are desperate.
The world economy is imbalanced towards the holders of real assets - oil in the Middle East and Asia and cheap labour in southeast Asia. Islamic extremism has been funded by inflationary monetary policy, which has run up the price of Middle Eastern oil. The present regime is a disaster, and none of our political leaders has a plan to deal with it (apart from Mr. Paul, with whom I certainly do not agree on all points).
Was the abandonment of the gold standard the worst event of the second half of the twentieth century? Yes, certainly. Mr. Cashin is absolutely correct here. _
Art Cashin recently identified August 1971 as "the most disastrous moment in US history." I concur.His article is here:
The Most Disastrous Moment In US Economic History Occured In August 1971
My comments to other readers (whom I thought missed the point of the discussion) are here:
Uh. I think we are forgetting the real question here. Do we want our currency to be stable in value, or to be a plaything of the central banks and politicians? I for one opt for the former. Fixing the currency to something real of course achieves that purpose more effectively than any other known strategy.
Humans are still emotional, so the gold standard doesn't "fix" problems, rather, it prevents their development, and that is what is at issue here. When the currency is unstable, the citizenry are literally forced into speculative assets as a means of preserving wealth. You don't have to agree on all points with Mises to see that easy money promotes capital misallocation, as we've had boatloads of that since at least the Vietnam war, and in spades since the advent of the Greenspan/Bernanke era.
Would preserving the gold standard have created a "perfect" financial world? Of course not. But we would have averted the worst of the excesses of the past 4 decades, and savers/investors, rather than speculators and manipulators, would have been rewarded.
The current US economy is hugely allocated to the practice of financial management (and law). Doug Casey identifies financial management alone as accounting for roughly 22% of the US economy (it should be more on the order of 1%). This is because value is being destroyed everywhere, and savers are desperate.
The world economy is imbalanced towards the holders of real assets - oil in the Middle East and Asia and cheap labour in southeast Asia. Islamic extremism has been funded by inflationary monetary policy, which has run up the price of Middle Eastern oil. The present regime is a disaster, and none of our political leaders has a plan to deal with it (apart from Mr. Paul, with whom I certainly do not agree on all points).
Was the abandonment of the gold standard the worst event of the second half of the twentieth century? Yes, certainly. Mr. Cashin is absolutely correct here. _
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