3 Ocak 2013 Perşembe

Asian stock markets Japan Nikkei rose dec 26 2012

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Stock market today -  Asian stock markets Japan Nikkei rose dec 26 2012 : Asian stock markets rose Wednesday as traders snapped up stocks before the end of the year, while the Tokyo benchmark neared a high for the year after a new, pro-business government prepared to assume leadership in a country plagued for years by economic lethargy.
Japan's Nikkei 225 index gained 0.4 percent to 10,122.82 as a further weakening yen gave momentum to the country's major exporters. The benchmark's highest intraday level of the year, 10,255.15, was reached on March 27.
Incoming Prime Minister Shinzo Abe has put pressure on the Bank of Japan to raise its inflation target from 1 to 2 percent to extricate the country from two decades of deflation - continually dropping prices - which has deadened economic activity.
Abe was to name a new Cabinet on Wednesday, following the resignation of Prime Minister Yoshihiko Noda's government. Abe has also urged the central bank to take steps to dampen the strength of the country's currency. A strong yen has hobbled big exporters like Toyota by eroding the value of repatriated earnings and making Japanese products more expensive overseas.
Abe has also called for aggressive public works spending to invigorate a languid economy.
South Korea's Kospi added 0.8 percent to 1,996.49. Stocks in mainland China, Singapore, Taiwan, Indonesia and the Philippines also rose. The gains were reflective of investors with extra cash wanting to avoid missing out on an end-of-the-year rally.
"People want to get invested. In previous years, we've seen good rallies around the end of the year," Hong Kong-based analyst Andrew Sullivan said in a recent interview.
Markets in Hong Kong, Australia and New Zealand were closed for holidays. Most markets in Europe reopen Thursday.
Among individual stocks, Japan's Fujitsu Ltd. rose 3.5 percent and Panasonic Corp. added 3 percent. Sharp Corp. jumped 4.8 percent.
Yonhap News Agency said South Korean mobile carriers fell after being fined for discriminative subsidies. SK Telecom Co., South Korea's top mobile carrier, fell 0.6 percent.
On Wall Street on Monday, the last day of trading before Christmas, stocks fell on concern that time is running out for lawmakers to reach a budget deal to avoid the U.S. going over the "fiscal cliff." U.S. stock markets reopen Wednesday.
For weeks, discussions between the White House and Congress over a budget deal have been the main driver in markets. If a deal isn't reached by the start of 2013, automatic spending cuts and tax increases worth hundreds of billions of dollars will be imposed - which many economists think could push the U.S. economy back into recession.
Benchmark oil for February delivery rose 46 cents to $89.07 per barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The contract closed down 5 cents to $88.61 a barrel on the Nymex on Monday.
In currencies, the euro fell to $1.3183 from $1.3192 late Monday in New York. The dollar rose to 85.15 yen from 84.23 yen.For the latest updates PRESS CTR + D or visit Stock Market news Today

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China stocks Property Shares Rise december 26 2012

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Stock market today - China stocks Property Shares Rise december 26 2012 : China’s stocks swung between gains and losses as technical indicators signaled equities were overbought after the benchmark measure erased this year’s decline yesterday. SAIC Motor Co., the biggest Chinese automaker, dropped for the first time in seven days, losing 3.2 percent. Industrial & Commercial Bank of China Ltd. paced declines for lenders, sliding 1.2 percent. Developers Poly Real Estate Group Co. (600048) and Gemdale Corp. climbed for a third day on speculation the government’s urbanization plan will support housing demand.


The Shanghai Composite Index (SHCOMP) fell 0.1 percent to 2,211.06 as of 1:12 p.m. local time. The measure yesterday wiped out losses this year of as much as 11 percent and climbed above its 200-day moving average. The CSI 300 Index (SHSZ300) slid 0.1 percent to 2,446.14, led by consumer discretionary companies such as automakers. Hong Kong’s market is closed today for holidays.

“The momentum is still there as the economy continues to recover and new leaders promise more reforms to boost growth,” said Wang Weijun, a strategist at Zheshang Securities Co. in Shanghai. “The market might have some fluctuations at this level but the trend is upward.”

Trading volumes in the Shanghai Composite were 70 percent higher than the 30-day average today. The index has risen 13 percent since this year’s closing low of 1,959.77 on Dec. 3 as the nation’s new leaders said they would promote urban development as part of economic reforms.

The 14-day relative strength measure for the Shanghai index, measuring how rapidly prices have advanced or dropped during a specified time period, was at 72.8 yesterday. Readings above 70 indicate a price may be poised to fall.

High RSI
SAIC slid 3.2 percent to 1642 yuan. The 14-day relative strength measure for the stock was at 85.2 yesterday. The shares have jumped 21 percent over the past month, twice as much as the Shanghai index.

FAW Car Co. (000800), which makes cars in China with Volkswagen AG, tumbled 4.5 percent to 8.33 yuan. Great Wall Motor Co., China’s biggest pickup truck maker, lost 1.1 percent to 21.99 yuan.

ICBC declined 1.2 percent to 4.09 yuan. Bank of Beijing Co. slumped 2.8 percent to 9.03 yuan. China Minsheng Banking Corp. (600016), the nation’s first privately owned bank, slipped 0.9 percent to 7.68 yuan. The stock closed at a four-year high yesterday.

China’s money-market rate climbed on speculation banks are hoarding cash to meet year-end capital requirements and holiday withdrawals. The seven-day repurchase rate, which measures interbank funding availability, rose 13 basis points to 3.85 percent as of 11:54 a.m. in Shanghai, according to a weighted average rate compiled by the National Interbank Funding Center.

Urbanization

The Shanghai Composite, up 0.4 percent this year, trades at 10.8 times estimated earnings, compared with 12 times for the MSCI Emerging Markets Index, according to weekly data compiled by Bloomberg. Thirty-day volatility in the gauge was at 20.2, compared with this year’s average of 17.

China’s largest cities including Beijing, Shanghai and Guangzhou will limit populations under a new urbanization plan, while smaller cities and towns will loosen controls on residency, the Shanghai Securities News reported, citing an unidentified person.

The country will also improve infrastructure and public services for transportation, communication, sewage and garbage disposal, health-care and education in urban areas, the report said. Urbanization is expected to spur 40 trillion yuan ($6.4 trillion) of investment by 2020, the Southern Metropolis Daily reported yesterday, citing a draft plan by the National Development and Reform Commission on urbanization.

“Developers are gaining on the government’s call to use urbanization as a new engine for growth,” Gao Jian, an analyst at Northeast Securities Co., said in a phone interview.

Property Stocks
A measure of property stocks in the Shanghai Composite climbed 1.3 percent today, extending yesterday’s 4.1 percent jump. The sub-index is heading for its highest close since July 2011 and the biggest two-day gain since Jan. 10. Poly Real Estate, China’s second-largest developer by market value, added 0.5 percent to 12.90 yuan. Gemdale, the third largest, gained 0.3 percent to 6.42 yuan.

China Vanke Co. (000002), the biggest developer, was suspended from trading pending “important matters,” it said. The company plans to convert its Shenzhen-listed B shares traded in Hong Kong dollars to H shares and list in Hong Kong, the Securities Times reported, citing an unidentified company official.

The statistics bureau is scheduled to release November profit for industrial companies tomorrow. Net income surged 20.5 percent from a year earlier in October, according to the bureau.

Source : www.bloomberg.comFor the latest updates PRESS CTR + D or visit Stock Market news Today

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Nifty, Sensex Analysis december 26 2012

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Nifty, Sensex Analysis december 26 2012 ; The Nifty is moving in a tight range after a positive start taking cues from other Asian peers and ahead of the December series expiry. Capital goods, realty and healthcare sectors led the up-move while technology and FMCG space edged lower.  According to analysts, the trade is likely to remain range-bound in the near term as most traders who are in holiday mood are likely to keep their positions light ahead of the New Year. 

At 10:15 a.m.; 50-share index was at 5,866.50, up 10.75 points or 0.18 per cent. It touched a high of 5,870.65 and a low of 5,859.55 in trade today. 
The Sensex was at 19,306.61, up 51.52 points or 0.27 per cent. The index touched a high of 19,321.41 and a low of 19,274.07 in trade today. 
"The trend deciding level for the day is 19,280 / 5,857 levels. If NIFTY trades above this level during the first half-an-hour of trade then we may witness a further rally up to 19,323 - 19,390 / 5,870 - 5,885 levels. However, if NIFTY trades below 19,280 / 5,857 levels for the first half-an-hour of trade then it may correct up to 19,212 - 19,170 / 5,843 - 5,830 levels," said Angel Broking note.
The BSE Midcap Index was up 0.54 per cent and the BSE Smallcap Index moved up 0.48 per cent. 
Among the sectoral indices, the BSE Capital Goods Index was up 0.98 per cent, the BSE Realty Index gained 0.97 per cent and the BSE Healthcare Index moved 0.72 per cent higher. The BSE IT Index was down 0.16 per cent and the BSE FMCG Index slipped 0.02 per cent. 
Bharti AirtelBSE 2.88 % (1.90 per cent), Jaiprakash Associates (1.67 per cent), Sun Pharmaceuticals (1.23 per cent), Larsen & Toubro (1.24 per cent) and BHEL (1.21 per cent) were the top Nifty gainers. 
Shares of Credit Analysis and Research (CARE) traded higher after listing at Rs 940, a premium of Rs 190 against its issue price of Rs 750 per share on the NSE. 
The stock was at Rs 980.70, up 30.76 per cent or Rs 230.70. It touched a high of Rs 985 and a low of Rs 895 in early trade on volume of 45.52 lakh shares. 
Wipro (1.01 per cent), Kotak Bank (0.80 per cent), Hindustan Unilever (0.79 per cent), Hero MotoCorp (0.76 per cent) and Infosys Technologies (0.76 per cent) were among the losers pack. 
The market breadth was positive on the NSE with 902 gainers against 472 losers. 
The foreign institutional investors bought shares worth Rs 459.67 crore on Friday as per the provisional data from the National Stock Exchange. 
The Asian markets moved higher after the Christmas holiday. The Nikkei 225 was up 0.74 per cent, Taiwan Weighted edged 0.17 per cent higher and the Seoul Composite moved 0.65 per cent higher.For the latest updates PRESS CTR + D or visit Stock Market news Today

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Gold's 1980 High – Think $5000 – No $8000 – per Ounce – or Higher

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15 July 2007 - Updated 18 July 2007, 6 & 10 April & 29 July 2008, 13 & 18 November 2009, 18 January 2010, 13 & 31 January, 15 February & 15 May 2011, 22 April 2012

The following article was originally published on July 15, 2007, so please read this as a historic document. More recent comments are added at the conclusion of the original post.

Jay Taylor has just posted a new inflation-adjusted estimate of gold's peak 1980 price.

As readers of this blog are aware, the price of gold rises in inflationary times.

Readers will also be aware that governments purposely and systematically understate the amount of actual inflation so as to make it possible for debtors everywhere – and governments are the greatest of all debtors – to repay obligations in a devalued currency, thereby enabling the ongoing operations of a debt and liquidity-based economy.

As a reader, you will also be aware that such an economic strategy punishes savers and rewards debtors by making saving unprofitable, thereby fuelling borrowing, discouraging saving, and creating asset bubbles (government sanctioned Ponzi schemes, if you will).

(Inflating asset bubbles entice citizens who would otherwise be savers to invest their devaluing cash in risky assets, thereby creating economic instability as an inevitable correlate of monetary inflation.)

The US government's official figures acknowledge that 1980's peak gold price was not the nominal $887.50 intraday high figure that those of us old enough to remember can recall from that era, but an estimated $1,459.63 US dollars.


Given this figure, we could conservatively expect gold to revisit a price near $1500 per ounce at some point in the upcoming years, based on cyclical fluctuation alone.

However, Mr. Taylor reminds us that the government inflation estimate is in fact grossly understated. According to him, Boston-based money manager Antony Herrey has compiled a chart of the inflation-adjusted gold price using not the government's own CPI statistics, but rather much more accurate inflation numbers compiled by economist John Williams.

Mr. Williams estimates that today’s US inflation rate is closer to 10% than the official (and entirely non-believable) government-reported 2.7%.

Mr. Herrey’s readjustment of the historic gold price based on the actual (non-manipulated, if you will) rate of inflation shows that gold in fact peaked at an inflation-adjusted amount of about $5000 in 1980.


The implication of this recalculation is that by normal cyclical fluctuation alone, it is reasonable to expect the current gold bull market to top out somewhere higher than $5000 per ounce.

Why higher than $5000 per ounce?

Because inflation will continue as the gold price rises.

So at today’s $666.00 per ounce, is gold cheap or expensive?

I think you can figure that one out.

On my advice, do not invest your devaluing cash in the current stock market and real estate bubbles (or other risky assets) presently exciting North America and much of the developed and developing world, but preserve your savings through the time-honoured store of value offered by precious metals – gold and silver.

Gold is up 150% from its 2001 low. But it can grow a further 750% from today’s levels – in real cash terms – before equalling its inflation-adjusted 1980 peak value.

This dollar-value advance would represent a 2000% or more (non-inflation-adjusted) cash gain from the 2001 low near $250.

Another way to think of it is that in true 1980 dollars, gold’s current market price is not $666.00 per ounce, but a reverse inflation-adjusted $113.00 (1980) US dollars per ounce.

The stock market by and large is trading in bubble territory by historic metrics. Real estate in many North American locations is also in bubble territory. Citizens everywhere are borrowing at a record clip and pouring their savings into ever-riskier assets – with today’s fads being hyper-leveraged hedge funds and the privatization of public companies by pension plans and private equity groups.

Do not let official government inflation policies force you into risky assets to preserve or increase the value of your savings.

While asset bubbles are over-valued by definition, gold remains radically undervalued, and will be a secure store of wealth for many years to come.

It is not that the price of gold is rising. It is that we are re-evaluating the worth of gold in terms of the declining value of “paper” (or digital) money.

Governments around the world can create new money through a series of computer key strokes.

But until the alchemists succeed – or until nuclear fusion advances far beyond today’s levels of sophistication – so that we can create gold at will from “base substances” – gold and silver will remain stores of value that are essentially impervious to the irresponsible inflationary policies of our governments around the world.

By the way, commodities generally also look very cheap today in inflation-adjusted terms, despite doubling on a broad measure since 2001. The chart below, from Puru Saxena, graphs commodity prices from 1954 through February of this year, with the inflation adjustment based only on the US government's profoundly muted official inflation numbers.

The Reuters/CRB continuous futures commodity index peaked in 1973 at $1048 in nominal "2007 US dollars." If we are to believe John Williams' inflation numbers, the real 1973 commodity index peak would have been in the $3-4000 range in 2007 US dollars. Today's CRB continuous futures index amount – just above $400 – therefore looks very much like a bargain from that perspective – and signals that commodity prices will run much higher before the world's demand for commodities has been sated.


Addendum - 6 & 10 April 2008: This post is the most frequently visited on my site, so I have added links to related information here, where more visitors are likely to find it. Mr Williams has recently updated his inflation-adjusted 1980 gold price to $6030, in order to reflect recent further inflation of the battered US dollar, which, as you know, is unwinding quickly at this time. Click here for more current information.

If you're looking for current gold prices - right up to the minute, visit Kitco.com. Kitco also has a wide selection of historical charts dating back as far as 1792. Kitco also sells gold in various forms, and can hold it for you, with delivery at a later date - allowing multiple purchases over time with only a single delivery charge.

And if it's technical charts you need, go to Stockcharts.com, though these charts date back only to 1990.

For further study of associated underlying factors, such as accumulating debt and escalating money supply, click here.

For more information about Canadian gold investing, click here.

For information about secular trends, click here.

For information on investment issues that relate to gold mining, click here.

For links to precious metal investment advisories, please view my links section to the right.

Could the price of gold rise higher than $6000? Click here for some speculations about a $9000 or higher gold price.

How should gold be priced today? My October 2008 estimate is in the $1600 range. Click here for this article. Bear in mind that "should" and "is" are two different ideas....

13 November 2009: Like the idea of $5000 gold? I'll be honest with you, any estimate of numbers even a few years in the future depends on countless economic unknowables, including the level of fiscal responsibility of all governments around the world (don't get overly optimistic), cumulative global central bank monetary policy, issues of war and peace, free or impeded trade, etc. So who really knows? Not I.

But here is an unlikely person who likes the $5000 number: Martin Armstrong, a financial theorist, former hedge fund manager and convicted Ponzi schemer (see Wikipedia entry here), likes the $5000 number for the year 2016. I can't tell you much about wave theory, not do I have personal knowledge of Mr. Armstrong's character, but I can attest that his fundamental analysis is not entirely off the mark. He states: "Gold has been among the most hated subjects by the socialists, because with each dollar that it advances, it reveals the delusion that they seek to live within."

However, in my view, Mr. Armstrong's critique, with its focus on the shortcomings of socialism, goes nowhere near far enough.

In correction to Mr. Armstrong, who makes a distinctly partisan argument, let me add that in my view, the fundamental problem is hardly with "the socialists" alone - as this group certainly remain a minority faction in North America and through most of the developed world. Particularly here in North America, it is unlikely that it will be the socialists who do us in....

Basically, every party and faction that seeks to resolve its issues through government rescue of a particular sector of the economy is equally in trouble, and that goes for the belligerent folks at the military-industrial complex, the Wall Street speculators who live for the next government guarantee, policy easing or bailout, the CEOs and executives who award themselves and their cronies obscene salaries and bonuses, the elected representatives who vote themselves comfortable pensions, and the financially reckless at all levels and strata of society from the poorest to the very rich.

Transferring funds from one sector of society to another sector of society through government intervention, exploiting savers and investors to pay off executives and managers, borrowing money we do not have and cannot pay back, billing our present expenses to future generations, and printing money out of thin air, are not sustainable strategies for wealth creation (though all are widely practiced today).

In fact, permit me to restate Mr. Armstrong's words as follows: "Gold has been among the most hated subjects by the financially irresponsible at all levels and in every sector of society, because with each dollar that it advances, it reveals the delusion that they seek to live within."

You heard it here. This is not about socialists. It is about all of us. Let's get our act together and start balancing budgets, promoting savings and investment rather than spending and borrowing, and setting aside reserves for the future rather than bilking our trading partners, shortchanging the purchasers of government bonds, and robbing our children and grandchildren.

I'll say it another way, let's make life easy for savers and investors, and difficult for borrowers and spenders. For a start, let's raise interest rates, not lower interest rates. Rather than taxing those who save, let's subsidize - or at least get out of the way of - private investment in legal and ethical business ventures of all kinds by those who set aside a portion of their funds for other than immediate uses.

That being said, Mr. Armstrong's select monograph on $5000 gold can be found here, courtesy of The Business Insider. Think what you like about his personality or his ethics (I do not condone securities fraud!). But Mr. Armstrong might possibly be on the right side of the trade when it comes to setting future gold price targets.

(More theoretical and critical articles by Mr. Armstrong can be found here.)

18 November 2009: Depending on your preferences, here is another analyst calling for $5000 gold. This time around it's Marc Faber, the Swiss-born trader who has resided in Asia for many years. Mr. Faber is arguing that gold is a better buy now, at over $1100 per ounce, than when it traded at $300 per ounce 6-8 years ago.

Faber states:

"I don’t think that you’ll see gold below $1,000 per ounce probably ever again. So I’m quite positive. Maybe, gold at this level is a better buy than it was at $300 per ounce in 2001.

"At first glance, the idea that gold priced at over $1,100 an ounce is 'a better buy' than when the metal traded at about a quarter of that price seems preposterous. But, when you think about it just a little bit (i.e., what constitutes a 'better buy' and how the fundamental factors have now swung so decidedly in gold's favour), maybe it isn't a crazy idea at all.

"I wouldn't be surprised if, in another eight years - in 2017 - the yellow metal fetches $5,000 an ounce or more which, by my math, would make it a better buy. Gold may not rise as much against other currencies, but, after almost a decade of trillion dollar deficits, that almost seems like a slam dunk when the measuring stick is the U.S. dollar."

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Lots of talk right now about longer-term gold targets. Of course, gold can go to infinity if the US dollar loses all of its value. I'm not predicting that, but the losses in the dollar are striking over the scale of the past century (during which the Federal Reserve has had a license to print money).

Dylan Grice, at Societe General, sets a target of $6300 per ounce. I think he is in the ballpark, though his methodology doesn't make sense to me. He is working out how much gold the US has, and what the price of gold would have to be to back every US dollar in existence. Here's the problem - the US government is not going to give anyone gold on demand in exchange for its currency.

Nonetheless, here is Rolfe Winkler's take on Grice's idea.

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The $5000 figure is now popular. Martin Hutchinson, a market historian writing at Prudent Bear, observes,
"The opportunity for the world's central banks to change policy and affect the economic outcome has been lost. The world economy is now locked on to an undeviating track towards another train wreck."

What is Mr. Hutchinson's gold price target? Again, $5000.

An esteemed historian in his own right, Adrian Ash explains: "Hutchinson sees a repeat of 1978-1980 now unfolding, with the price of gold vaulting to perhaps $5000 an ounce by the end of next year."

This rate of development of the crisis is a little fast for me....

Mr. Hutchinson sees it like this, however, "If expansionary monetary and fiscal policies are pursued regardless of market signals, the US will head towards Weimar-style trillion-percent inflation... As I said, a train wreck. Probability of arrival: close to 100%. Time of arrival: around the end of 2010, or possibly a bit earlier. And, at this stage, there's very little anyone can do about it; the definitive rise of gold above $1,000 marked the point of no return."

Mr. Ash does not oppose or endorse Mr. Hutchinson's one-year $5000 projection for the gold price, but he concludes, "In short, if you think buying now feels a hard decision, what would you think 50% or 100% higher from here....?"

You know, that's worth thinking about! Click here for Adrian Ash's full article at Seeking Alpha.

18 January 2010: More articles on $5000 gold:

"The Five Reasons Gold Will Hit $5,000"

"Gold May Rise to $5,000 on Inflation, Schroder Says"

"Peter Schiff makes the case for $5000 gold"

"Will Gold Reach $5000 an Ounce?"

"$5,000 Gold?"

"$5,000 Gold In The Future?"

"Could $5,000 gold be too low as dollar loses value?"

"Global Stock Market Forecasts - Shanghai Index 30,000, Gold $5000 and DJIA 17,000"

9 May 2010: Gold's next stop = $3000 per ounce in 2012?

Maybe - click here.
(Gold Decouples on International Debt Crisis Concerns - Gold Forecast to Reach $3,000)

Mary Ann and Pamela Aden are also currently considering a 2012 peak target in this range, and suggest that a subsequent peak in 2018-2019 could be several thousand dollars higher.

Enjoy!

13 January 2011: Today is my father's birthday, so I dedicate this post to him.... There is now so much material on this topic, I hardly know where to direct you. But for an overview, one diligent researcher has gone to the trouble of tracking down every known gold price prediction (and here I'm discounting those looking for $680 gold in 2014. That is NOT going to happen through any conceivable course of events - apart from the synthesis of gold in a fusion reactor or the earth's collision with a golden asteroid!).

Click here for Lorimer Wilson's unique overview: These 110 Analysts Believe Gold Will Go Parabolic to $3,000 or More! (The link may be somewhat circular, as the present article is also mentioned.) Mr. Wilson's article may be of special interest if there are particular analysts that you prefer to follow.

31 January 2011: Here is an up-to-the-minute gold price estimate - following Alan Greenspan's recent recommendation that we reconsider a gold standard. The US gold hoard - the largest in the world - will back the entire US money supply at a rate of $6300 per ounce. It sounds arbitrary, but if the US were to adopt a true gold standard (every dollar in circulation backed by non-printable, non-inflatable physical gold), that's how many dollars is would take to purchase a single ounce of US gold holdings..... Note that Mr Greenspan joins Robert Zoellick of the World Bank, Howard Buffett (but not his son Warren), Jim Grant and Thomas Hoenig of the Kansas City Fed in making this recommendation. Think about it... a gold standard for our ever-inflating money supply, and $6300 gold.

15 February 2011: The current SGS (Shadowstats) inflation-adjusted price for gold's previous 1980 peak value (based on gold's $850 close vs. its $887.50 peak intraday price) is now... get this, $7824 per troy ounce (courtesy of The Dollar Vigilante). And, of course, as inflation increases towards, let us say 2019, we are likely to move above not only an $8000 figure, but quite realistically, a $10,000 figure as well. Caveat: If Ron Paul can tame the Federal Reserve, this could all evolve differently. However, my best guess is that we will require greater crises than we have so far seen (the 2008 crash included) before the populace can be moved towards financial sanity. My prediction - we will require repeated shocks over the better part of the present decade before we come to our senses about money-printing and debt repayment.

The National Inflation Association has the most extensive collection of charts related to issues of money supply, "real" inflation and debt I have so far found. Click here to view dozens of relevant charts on one page.

15 May 2011: Robin Griffiths of Cazenove, according to Eric King, "one of the oldest financial firms on the planet," is widely believed to be the appointed stockbroker to Her Majesty The Queen.

Mr Griffiths expectations? He is calling for silver at $450, and gold at $12,000. (I have commented before, at such levels, the real determinant is the degree of "dollar destruction.") Click here for Eric King's summary.


22 April 2012: The presently linked article by Stephen Bogner is truly definitive on the topic of where the gold price has been and where it is going. Mr. Bogner gives full consideration to the SGS inflation estimates, which I have often cited.

Mr. Bogner believes we are now on the verge of the most significant upward breakout yet in the gold price, and his arguments are compelling. In brief, this is a very important and very recent article. Read "The Gold Megatrend" here.

Note that another year has passed, and we are now looking at a previous inflation-adjusted 1980 high gold price of $9000 per ounce. It seems that the only remaining question is whether we are facing escalating inflation that can be contained by policies similar to those used by Paul Volcker in 1980, or whether we are on the eve of hyperinflation, in which case a $9000 gold price would be meaningless (it would rise much, much higher, but in this case, because of the final destruction of the currency in which it is valued).
_

Differential Rates of Currency Decay Explain Europe's Unsolvable Dilemma

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10 June 2012

Quick comment.

Since the nations of the world, led by the example of the United States, aboandoned the gold standard, all of them have allowed their currencies to decay at a steady clip. We call it "inflation," perhaps a euphemism. My suggestion, we should call currency destruction what is is, "currency decay."

If you understand this concept, you will understand the present problem with Europe.

In brief, the Deutsch Mark, if it stil existed, would rise relative to other currencies, as German monetary policy is less inflationary than that of most other major nations. Note - it is still inflationary, just less so relative to the policies of its peers.

In brief, this is why the European Monetary Union is failing. Greece has always permitted a rapidly decaying currency, as Greek citizens have a habit of taking long holidays, retiring at 60, not paying income and property taxes, and not even paying for government-provided services, including electricity. Similarly, Spain, Portugal and even Italy are "relaxed" when compared to the more industrious French and German economies.

So what we are seeing now is currency decay to the point of outright "rot" in Greece, and quickening currency decline in Spain (with Portugal, Italy, Ireland and certainly others "following along").

How does one maintain monetary union in such a case?

In brief, it can't be done.

The nations with slowly decaying currencies must continuously bail out those that tolerate more rapid decay and outright decomposition, with Greece being the current poster child.

It's not fixable.

(Thanks to Hookedblog for today's images.)
_

2 Ocak 2013 Çarşamba

Why gold futures prices Down, Analysis december 26 2012

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Why gold futures prices Down, Analysis december 26 2012 - Gold slipped in thin trade on Wednesday as uncertainty over whether the United States would be able to avoid a fiscal crisis kept investors at bay, but lower prices spurred buying from jewellers. President Barack Obama is likely to leave his vacation in Hawaii to return to Washington as early as Wednesday to address the unfinished "fiscal cliff" negotiations with Congress.


A deal to avert the so-called fiscal cliff of tax hikes and spending cuts that kick in at the start of next year and threaten to tip the world's largest economy back into recession would offer trading direction to financial markets.

While gold is typically a safe-haven asset that gets a boost from economic uncertainties, it has increasingly been behaving like a risk asset and could also gain if a US resolution comes through.

"I am still friendly with the market but it looks like until the new year starts, it's under pressure from, probably, long liquidation," Yuichi Ikemizu, branch manager for Standard Bank in Tokyo, adding that investors would closely watch the progress of negotiations between the White House and Congress.

"This week, probably we will stay around here at $1,640 to $1,670."

Gold dropped $3.63 an ounce to $1,654.66 by 0341 GMT, off a 4-month low struck last week. It is still on track for a 12th straight year of gains on rock-bottom interest rates, concerns over the financial stability of the euro zone, and diversification into bullion by central banks.

Markets in London were still shut on Wednesday for the Christmas holiday.    

Gold contracts on the Tokyo Commodity Exchange, which often influence movements in spot gold, rose after the yen dropped to a 20-month low against the dollar on growing hopes for further monetary easing in Japan.

But most gold investors are waiting for the outcome of the US fiscal talks after the House of Representatives failed to pass its own budget measures last week.

US gold futures for February slipped $3.80 an ounce to $1,655.70.  

In the physical market, gold dealers noted buying interest from bargain hunters and jewellers in Southeast Asia.

"We don't have enough stocks because of the Christmas holiday, so supply is a bit tight. But the premiums have yet to rise. They are still at $1.0 to $1.20," said a physical dealer in Singapore.

"We are seeing light buying from Indonesia and Thailand."  

In other markets, the yen sank to a 20-month low against the US dollar on Wednesday as Shinzo Abe prepared to assume Japan's helm with a mandate to weaken its currency and push for more drastic monetary and fiscal stimulus.

Asian shares and other assets were capped in thin holiday trade, with investors focusing on the fate of US negotiations to avert a budget crunch looming at the end of the yearFor the latest updates PRESS CTR + D or visit Stock Market news Today

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Analysis forecast Gold prices in india 2013

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Stock market today - Analysis forecast Gold prices in india 2013  : Gold slipped in thin trade on Wednesday as uncertainty over whether the United States would be able to avoid a fiscal crisis kept investors at bay, but lower prices spurred buying from jewellers. President Barack Obama is likely to leave his vacation in Hawaii to return to Washington as early as Wednesday to address the unfinished "fiscal cliff" negotiations with Congress.
Gold futures prices fell by 0.40 per cent to to Rs 30,732 per 10 gm as speculators reduced their positions, taking weak cues from the global market. At the Multi Commodity Exchange, gold prices for delivery in February fell by Rs 122, or 0.40 per cent, to Rs 30,732 per 10 gm in a business turnover of 1,569 lots. Similarly, the metal prices for delivery in far-month April fell by Rs 115, or 0.37 per cent, to Rs 31,152 per 10 gm in 58 lots.
Gold is mostly considered as a hedge or a long term investment rather than means of speculation for most of the investors. Gold price forecasts will never be completely accurate, but we collected some information on the key drivers influencing the gold price forecasts for 2013, to give an idea.
Review of gold in 20122012 opened with a 'green' for Gold. The gold price started into the year 2012 at $1,530 per ounce. Over the full year 2011 the price of gold had increased by more than 13% despite the two dips in September and November/ December. This made 2011 the tenth consecutive year in which the gold price increased.
By November, the gold price had further increased to roughly $1,740, i.e. by more than 13% from the beginning of 2012. Throughout the year, the major factors that played an important role on the precious markets are as follows:
>> In 2010, central banks have changed their status from net sellers to net buyers of gold, driven by a decrease of sales from developed countries and an increase in buying activity from developing countries. Given the low percentage of central bank’s asset allocation into gold in emerging countries like China (2% versus about 70% in countries like the United States, Germany and France), there is a high probability that the central banks will continue to be a net buyer of gold in 2013 and even beyond 2013.
>> Besides jewellery, the demand from the investment sector accounts for more than 50% of total demand. Amidst the money and debt creation by major economies and following the financial crisis, which started in 2007, the demand for gold as an investment reached record highs in 2011. The demand has rose exponentially in the from gold securities like gold ETF and physical gold in the form of bars and coins and in the latter part of the year it has increased in the form of professionally vaulted gold. This indicates that safety is a major concern for gold investors, who usually view physical gold or vaulted gold as more safe than so called ‘paper gold’
>> For India, the government left no stone unturned so as to curb the gGold imports and in turn reduce their trade imbalance. Increase in the import duty on gold, change in lending behaviour of Indian banks for loans against gold etc has affected the demand of gold in India. Just for understanding, government had increased duty in December, 2011 on gold and silver. An additional 2% increase of import duty on gold in March, 2012 has impacted, not only for bullion industry but also for the common man.
>> Through the middle of the year many investors lost faith in gold and no longer believed hat gold is a safe haven asset. Many even believed that gold was in a bubble stage. Investors shifted their attention to other assets like dollar. But as we have seen in the past, gold started gaining importance once again.
>> The Greek Elections held in June reflected mixed sentiments for the precious metals market because everyone was waiting for the FOMC meet that was held after the elections.
Concluding the meet, in a bid to reduce unemployment and protect the economy, the Fed decided to extend its Operation twist till the year end with a sum of US$267.The Launch of QE3 had pushed gold prices to new highs of the year. India too witnessed gold peaking to its life-time high of 32,650 in the physical markets through depreciation of rupee and rise in international prices.
Outlook Gold prices 2013:Globally 2013 will be a better year than 2012. There are positive sentiments in the market as far as economic growth is concerned. GDP growth will also be high. A better economy will bring a rise in demand worldwide and thus production will increase. In this case demand for silver will also rise, given its wide use in various industrial applications. The range for silver in the Indian markets for 2013. Will be between Rs 52,000 and Rs 80,000 a kg.
As far as gold is concerned, it will be moving in the range of Rs 29,500(per 10gm) on the lower side to Rs 35,000 on the upper side (a range of Rs 31,000 to Rs 35,000 is where we expect gold to trade). Gold tends to perform positively in times of economic uncertainties as well as in acute crises. Unfortunately, the global financial problems are not yet sorted out. I still feel there are several more years of uncertainty and painful deleveraging, which could end only when we are approaching the next decade. 
Moreover even if gold prices drop in the international market, Indian prices do not fall that significantly. Due to the rupee depreciation, the reduced international price does not completely impact the Indian price.
Moreover, in 2012 we saw a low volatility ratio and the fluctuations in the market were not that volatile. Whereas in 2013 I expect 50 per cent higher volatility compared to 2012. Geopolitical risks, e.g. in relation to Iran, will support this position of gold as a ‘safe haven’ further. Overall, the markets will be positive for precious metals.For the latest updates PRESS CTR + D or visit Stock Market news Today

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Barack Obama invited congressional leaders to the White House a last-ditch effort to broker a deal

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Stock market today -  Barack Obama invited congressional leaders to the White House a last-ditch effort to broker a deal : Congress and the White House took small steps toward breaking the budget impasse Thursday, but Democrats and Republicans grew increasingly fearful they won't be able to avert the tax increases and spending cuts known as the fiscal cliff, a prospect that is unnerving consumers and investors.
President Barack Obama invited congressional leaders to the White House on Friday afternoon for a last-ditch effort to broker a deal, as the Senate returned to Washington on Thursday. House GOP leaders said in a Thursday conference call with Republicans, who are growing nervous about their party being blamed for the deadlock, that the House will reconvene Sunday evening

It is still possible the two sides can reach a deal, especially with the leaders meeting Friday. Any resolution would be a scaled-back version of the package Mr. Obama and congressional leaders had anticipated passing after the November election. The White House is pressing for the Senate to extend current tax rates for income up to $250,000, extend unemployment benefits, keep the alternative minimum tax from hitting millions of additional taxpayers and delay spending cuts set to take effect in January.

The 11th-hour strategy carries enormous risk because it leaves no margin for error in Congress's balky legislative machinery. Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D., Nev.) said the prospects for passage of a bill before the last day of the year are fading rapidly. "I have to be very honest," he said. "I don't know time-wise how it can happen now."

Anxiety about Washington's ability to resolve its budget battles is roiling the economy. Conference Board figures showed that consumer confidence fell in December to its lowest level since August, driven by a pessimistic outlook for economic activity next year.

Stocks have swung on the latest news from Washington. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell sharply on Mr. Reid's pessimistic comments before recouping most of a 151-point drop on news the House would reconvene this weekend.

At best, leaders are looking at a narrow bill that could be passed at the last minute. At the meeting Friday, Mr. Obama will outline the elements he thinks should be in a deal and could get majority support in both chambers of Congress, according to a person familiar with the matter. He won't put forward a specific bill or legislative language, the person added.

Missing the year-end deadline would mean an income-tax increase Jan. 1 for virtually all taxpayers and spending cuts of $110 billion in defense and domestic programs. For months, economists have warned that going over the cliff could thrust the U.S. back into recession.

Most officials say they believe any deal is most likely to emerge in the Senate. Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R., Ky.) left the door open to looking at a White House proposal, although noted the difficulty of "coming up against a hard deadline here."

Whether or not there is a deal, the weeks since the election have produced a stark display of political gridlock. "The government is not working," said Steve Bell, senior director of the Bipartisan Policy Center, who was a senior budget adviser to Senate Republicans for many years. "There is no doubt that the policy-making apparatus in this town has collapsed."

Following the tea-party wave in the 2010 election, the 112th Congress looks set to be the least productive in recent history. By the end of November, the House had passed 146 bills over the previous two years, by far the smallest number for any Congress since 1948. The Senate passed fewer bills in 2012 than in any year since at least 1992.

Rather than smoothing over differences, the November election appears to have hardened them. "We came out of the election with both sides thinking they won and had an equal mandate," said Ross Baker, a professor at Rutgers University who is now interviewing lawmakers on Capitol Hill for a book on bipartisanship. "One problem is we don't have a common narrative to guide us."

Mr. Obama and House Speaker John Boehner (R., Ohio) proclaimed a postelection desire to avoid the cliff and both sides made major concessions before negotiations collapsed last week. By then, they had reduced their differences to a range most congressional veterans could imagine being bridged in past eras when party leaders were more practiced at the art of compromise.

"We are at the point of no return," said Jim Manley, a former longtime aide to Mr. Reid, who also thinks it isn't possible to seal a deal before the deadline. "And so off the cliff the country will go."

Mr. Obama called Messrs. Boehner, McConnell, Reid and House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi (D., Calif.) late Wednesday during his holiday vacation in Hawaii "to receive an update on the ongoing fiscal negotiations," White House spokeswoman Amy Brundage said.

The calls mark the first time Mr. Obama has called Mr. McConnell, who is now seen as key to brokering a deal, directly to discuss the fiscal cliff.

While the Senate returned from its Christmas holiday Thursday, it worked on legislation unrelated to the fiscal cliff. Mr. Reid taunted House Republican leaders for still being in recess, a criticism that stung some House Republicans, who complained to their leadership.

In their conference call Thursday afternoon, House GOP leaders announced they were calling members back into session Sunday evening in hopes that there would by then be a budget agreement to approve. They also told members to expect to stay in town through the following Friday, suggesting the possibility of a prolonged fight.

Republicans participating in the call said they believed GOP leaders were prepared to move quickly, if the fiscal cliff deadline is breached, to bring up legislation to reverse the tax increases and spending cuts retroactively. That action could be taken by a new session of Congress, which will be sworn in Jan. 3.

For all the economic anxiety about going over the fiscal cliff, there are political advantages to both parties for postponing action. There will be more Democrats in the new House and Senate. Mr. Boehner would have his re-election as speaker behind him, one of the first acts the new Congress will take. He has denied his job security is a concern, and no one has announced a campaign to challenge him.
For the latest updates PRESS CTR + D or visit Stock Market news Today

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Gold's 1980 High – Think $5000 – No $8000 – per Ounce – or Higher

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15 July 2007 - Updated 18 July 2007, 6 & 10 April & 29 July 2008, 13 & 18 November 2009, 18 January 2010, 13 & 31 January, 15 February & 15 May 2011, 22 April 2012

The following article was originally published on July 15, 2007, so please read this as a historic document. More recent comments are added at the conclusion of the original post.

Jay Taylor has just posted a new inflation-adjusted estimate of gold's peak 1980 price.

As readers of this blog are aware, the price of gold rises in inflationary times.

Readers will also be aware that governments purposely and systematically understate the amount of actual inflation so as to make it possible for debtors everywhere – and governments are the greatest of all debtors – to repay obligations in a devalued currency, thereby enabling the ongoing operations of a debt and liquidity-based economy.

As a reader, you will also be aware that such an economic strategy punishes savers and rewards debtors by making saving unprofitable, thereby fuelling borrowing, discouraging saving, and creating asset bubbles (government sanctioned Ponzi schemes, if you will).

(Inflating asset bubbles entice citizens who would otherwise be savers to invest their devaluing cash in risky assets, thereby creating economic instability as an inevitable correlate of monetary inflation.)

The US government's official figures acknowledge that 1980's peak gold price was not the nominal $887.50 intraday high figure that those of us old enough to remember can recall from that era, but an estimated $1,459.63 US dollars.


Given this figure, we could conservatively expect gold to revisit a price near $1500 per ounce at some point in the upcoming years, based on cyclical fluctuation alone.

However, Mr. Taylor reminds us that the government inflation estimate is in fact grossly understated. According to him, Boston-based money manager Antony Herrey has compiled a chart of the inflation-adjusted gold price using not the government's own CPI statistics, but rather much more accurate inflation numbers compiled by economist John Williams.

Mr. Williams estimates that today’s US inflation rate is closer to 10% than the official (and entirely non-believable) government-reported 2.7%.

Mr. Herrey’s readjustment of the historic gold price based on the actual (non-manipulated, if you will) rate of inflation shows that gold in fact peaked at an inflation-adjusted amount of about $5000 in 1980.


The implication of this recalculation is that by normal cyclical fluctuation alone, it is reasonable to expect the current gold bull market to top out somewhere higher than $5000 per ounce.

Why higher than $5000 per ounce?

Because inflation will continue as the gold price rises.

So at today’s $666.00 per ounce, is gold cheap or expensive?

I think you can figure that one out.

On my advice, do not invest your devaluing cash in the current stock market and real estate bubbles (or other risky assets) presently exciting North America and much of the developed and developing world, but preserve your savings through the time-honoured store of value offered by precious metals – gold and silver.

Gold is up 150% from its 2001 low. But it can grow a further 750% from today’s levels – in real cash terms – before equalling its inflation-adjusted 1980 peak value.

This dollar-value advance would represent a 2000% or more (non-inflation-adjusted) cash gain from the 2001 low near $250.

Another way to think of it is that in true 1980 dollars, gold’s current market price is not $666.00 per ounce, but a reverse inflation-adjusted $113.00 (1980) US dollars per ounce.

The stock market by and large is trading in bubble territory by historic metrics. Real estate in many North American locations is also in bubble territory. Citizens everywhere are borrowing at a record clip and pouring their savings into ever-riskier assets – with today’s fads being hyper-leveraged hedge funds and the privatization of public companies by pension plans and private equity groups.

Do not let official government inflation policies force you into risky assets to preserve or increase the value of your savings.

While asset bubbles are over-valued by definition, gold remains radically undervalued, and will be a secure store of wealth for many years to come.

It is not that the price of gold is rising. It is that we are re-evaluating the worth of gold in terms of the declining value of “paper” (or digital) money.

Governments around the world can create new money through a series of computer key strokes.

But until the alchemists succeed – or until nuclear fusion advances far beyond today’s levels of sophistication – so that we can create gold at will from “base substances” – gold and silver will remain stores of value that are essentially impervious to the irresponsible inflationary policies of our governments around the world.

By the way, commodities generally also look very cheap today in inflation-adjusted terms, despite doubling on a broad measure since 2001. The chart below, from Puru Saxena, graphs commodity prices from 1954 through February of this year, with the inflation adjustment based only on the US government's profoundly muted official inflation numbers.

The Reuters/CRB continuous futures commodity index peaked in 1973 at $1048 in nominal "2007 US dollars." If we are to believe John Williams' inflation numbers, the real 1973 commodity index peak would have been in the $3-4000 range in 2007 US dollars. Today's CRB continuous futures index amount – just above $400 – therefore looks very much like a bargain from that perspective – and signals that commodity prices will run much higher before the world's demand for commodities has been sated.


Addendum - 6 & 10 April 2008: This post is the most frequently visited on my site, so I have added links to related information here, where more visitors are likely to find it. Mr Williams has recently updated his inflation-adjusted 1980 gold price to $6030, in order to reflect recent further inflation of the battered US dollar, which, as you know, is unwinding quickly at this time. Click here for more current information.

If you're looking for current gold prices - right up to the minute, visit Kitco.com. Kitco also has a wide selection of historical charts dating back as far as 1792. Kitco also sells gold in various forms, and can hold it for you, with delivery at a later date - allowing multiple purchases over time with only a single delivery charge.

And if it's technical charts you need, go to Stockcharts.com, though these charts date back only to 1990.

For further study of associated underlying factors, such as accumulating debt and escalating money supply, click here.

For more information about Canadian gold investing, click here.

For information about secular trends, click here.

For information on investment issues that relate to gold mining, click here.

For links to precious metal investment advisories, please view my links section to the right.

Could the price of gold rise higher than $6000? Click here for some speculations about a $9000 or higher gold price.

How should gold be priced today? My October 2008 estimate is in the $1600 range. Click here for this article. Bear in mind that "should" and "is" are two different ideas....

13 November 2009: Like the idea of $5000 gold? I'll be honest with you, any estimate of numbers even a few years in the future depends on countless economic unknowables, including the level of fiscal responsibility of all governments around the world (don't get overly optimistic), cumulative global central bank monetary policy, issues of war and peace, free or impeded trade, etc. So who really knows? Not I.

But here is an unlikely person who likes the $5000 number: Martin Armstrong, a financial theorist, former hedge fund manager and convicted Ponzi schemer (see Wikipedia entry here), likes the $5000 number for the year 2016. I can't tell you much about wave theory, not do I have personal knowledge of Mr. Armstrong's character, but I can attest that his fundamental analysis is not entirely off the mark. He states: "Gold has been among the most hated subjects by the socialists, because with each dollar that it advances, it reveals the delusion that they seek to live within."

However, in my view, Mr. Armstrong's critique, with its focus on the shortcomings of socialism, goes nowhere near far enough.

In correction to Mr. Armstrong, who makes a distinctly partisan argument, let me add that in my view, the fundamental problem is hardly with "the socialists" alone - as this group certainly remain a minority faction in North America and through most of the developed world. Particularly here in North America, it is unlikely that it will be the socialists who do us in....

Basically, every party and faction that seeks to resolve its issues through government rescue of a particular sector of the economy is equally in trouble, and that goes for the belligerent folks at the military-industrial complex, the Wall Street speculators who live for the next government guarantee, policy easing or bailout, the CEOs and executives who award themselves and their cronies obscene salaries and bonuses, the elected representatives who vote themselves comfortable pensions, and the financially reckless at all levels and strata of society from the poorest to the very rich.

Transferring funds from one sector of society to another sector of society through government intervention, exploiting savers and investors to pay off executives and managers, borrowing money we do not have and cannot pay back, billing our present expenses to future generations, and printing money out of thin air, are not sustainable strategies for wealth creation (though all are widely practiced today).

In fact, permit me to restate Mr. Armstrong's words as follows: "Gold has been among the most hated subjects by the financially irresponsible at all levels and in every sector of society, because with each dollar that it advances, it reveals the delusion that they seek to live within."

You heard it here. This is not about socialists. It is about all of us. Let's get our act together and start balancing budgets, promoting savings and investment rather than spending and borrowing, and setting aside reserves for the future rather than bilking our trading partners, shortchanging the purchasers of government bonds, and robbing our children and grandchildren.

I'll say it another way, let's make life easy for savers and investors, and difficult for borrowers and spenders. For a start, let's raise interest rates, not lower interest rates. Rather than taxing those who save, let's subsidize - or at least get out of the way of - private investment in legal and ethical business ventures of all kinds by those who set aside a portion of their funds for other than immediate uses.

That being said, Mr. Armstrong's select monograph on $5000 gold can be found here, courtesy of The Business Insider. Think what you like about his personality or his ethics (I do not condone securities fraud!). But Mr. Armstrong might possibly be on the right side of the trade when it comes to setting future gold price targets.

(More theoretical and critical articles by Mr. Armstrong can be found here.)

18 November 2009: Depending on your preferences, here is another analyst calling for $5000 gold. This time around it's Marc Faber, the Swiss-born trader who has resided in Asia for many years. Mr. Faber is arguing that gold is a better buy now, at over $1100 per ounce, than when it traded at $300 per ounce 6-8 years ago.

Faber states:

"I don’t think that you’ll see gold below $1,000 per ounce probably ever again. So I’m quite positive. Maybe, gold at this level is a better buy than it was at $300 per ounce in 2001.

"At first glance, the idea that gold priced at over $1,100 an ounce is 'a better buy' than when the metal traded at about a quarter of that price seems preposterous. But, when you think about it just a little bit (i.e., what constitutes a 'better buy' and how the fundamental factors have now swung so decidedly in gold's favour), maybe it isn't a crazy idea at all.

"I wouldn't be surprised if, in another eight years - in 2017 - the yellow metal fetches $5,000 an ounce or more which, by my math, would make it a better buy. Gold may not rise as much against other currencies, but, after almost a decade of trillion dollar deficits, that almost seems like a slam dunk when the measuring stick is the U.S. dollar."

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Lots of talk right now about longer-term gold targets. Of course, gold can go to infinity if the US dollar loses all of its value. I'm not predicting that, but the losses in the dollar are striking over the scale of the past century (during which the Federal Reserve has had a license to print money).

Dylan Grice, at Societe General, sets a target of $6300 per ounce. I think he is in the ballpark, though his methodology doesn't make sense to me. He is working out how much gold the US has, and what the price of gold would have to be to back every US dollar in existence. Here's the problem - the US government is not going to give anyone gold on demand in exchange for its currency.

Nonetheless, here is Rolfe Winkler's take on Grice's idea.

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The $5000 figure is now popular. Martin Hutchinson, a market historian writing at Prudent Bear, observes,
"The opportunity for the world's central banks to change policy and affect the economic outcome has been lost. The world economy is now locked on to an undeviating track towards another train wreck."

What is Mr. Hutchinson's gold price target? Again, $5000.

An esteemed historian in his own right, Adrian Ash explains: "Hutchinson sees a repeat of 1978-1980 now unfolding, with the price of gold vaulting to perhaps $5000 an ounce by the end of next year."

This rate of development of the crisis is a little fast for me....

Mr. Hutchinson sees it like this, however, "If expansionary monetary and fiscal policies are pursued regardless of market signals, the US will head towards Weimar-style trillion-percent inflation... As I said, a train wreck. Probability of arrival: close to 100%. Time of arrival: around the end of 2010, or possibly a bit earlier. And, at this stage, there's very little anyone can do about it; the definitive rise of gold above $1,000 marked the point of no return."

Mr. Ash does not oppose or endorse Mr. Hutchinson's one-year $5000 projection for the gold price, but he concludes, "In short, if you think buying now feels a hard decision, what would you think 50% or 100% higher from here....?"

You know, that's worth thinking about! Click here for Adrian Ash's full article at Seeking Alpha.

18 January 2010: More articles on $5000 gold:

"The Five Reasons Gold Will Hit $5,000"

"Gold May Rise to $5,000 on Inflation, Schroder Says"

"Peter Schiff makes the case for $5000 gold"

"Will Gold Reach $5000 an Ounce?"

"$5,000 Gold?"

"$5,000 Gold In The Future?"

"Could $5,000 gold be too low as dollar loses value?"

"Global Stock Market Forecasts - Shanghai Index 30,000, Gold $5000 and DJIA 17,000"

9 May 2010: Gold's next stop = $3000 per ounce in 2012?

Maybe - click here.
(Gold Decouples on International Debt Crisis Concerns - Gold Forecast to Reach $3,000)

Mary Ann and Pamela Aden are also currently considering a 2012 peak target in this range, and suggest that a subsequent peak in 2018-2019 could be several thousand dollars higher.

Enjoy!

13 January 2011: Today is my father's birthday, so I dedicate this post to him.... There is now so much material on this topic, I hardly know where to direct you. But for an overview, one diligent researcher has gone to the trouble of tracking down every known gold price prediction (and here I'm discounting those looking for $680 gold in 2014. That is NOT going to happen through any conceivable course of events - apart from the synthesis of gold in a fusion reactor or the earth's collision with a golden asteroid!).

Click here for Lorimer Wilson's unique overview: These 110 Analysts Believe Gold Will Go Parabolic to $3,000 or More! (The link may be somewhat circular, as the present article is also mentioned.) Mr. Wilson's article may be of special interest if there are particular analysts that you prefer to follow.

31 January 2011: Here is an up-to-the-minute gold price estimate - following Alan Greenspan's recent recommendation that we reconsider a gold standard. The US gold hoard - the largest in the world - will back the entire US money supply at a rate of $6300 per ounce. It sounds arbitrary, but if the US were to adopt a true gold standard (every dollar in circulation backed by non-printable, non-inflatable physical gold), that's how many dollars is would take to purchase a single ounce of US gold holdings..... Note that Mr Greenspan joins Robert Zoellick of the World Bank, Howard Buffett (but not his son Warren), Jim Grant and Thomas Hoenig of the Kansas City Fed in making this recommendation. Think about it... a gold standard for our ever-inflating money supply, and $6300 gold.

15 February 2011: The current SGS (Shadowstats) inflation-adjusted price for gold's previous 1980 peak value (based on gold's $850 close vs. its $887.50 peak intraday price) is now... get this, $7824 per troy ounce (courtesy of The Dollar Vigilante). And, of course, as inflation increases towards, let us say 2019, we are likely to move above not only an $8000 figure, but quite realistically, a $10,000 figure as well. Caveat: If Ron Paul can tame the Federal Reserve, this could all evolve differently. However, my best guess is that we will require greater crises than we have so far seen (the 2008 crash included) before the populace can be moved towards financial sanity. My prediction - we will require repeated shocks over the better part of the present decade before we come to our senses about money-printing and debt repayment.

The National Inflation Association has the most extensive collection of charts related to issues of money supply, "real" inflation and debt I have so far found. Click here to view dozens of relevant charts on one page.

15 May 2011: Robin Griffiths of Cazenove, according to Eric King, "one of the oldest financial firms on the planet," is widely believed to be the appointed stockbroker to Her Majesty The Queen.

Mr Griffiths expectations? He is calling for silver at $450, and gold at $12,000. (I have commented before, at such levels, the real determinant is the degree of "dollar destruction.") Click here for Eric King's summary.


22 April 2012: The presently linked article by Stephen Bogner is truly definitive on the topic of where the gold price has been and where it is going. Mr. Bogner gives full consideration to the SGS inflation estimates, which I have often cited.

Mr. Bogner believes we are now on the verge of the most significant upward breakout yet in the gold price, and his arguments are compelling. In brief, this is a very important and very recent article. Read "The Gold Megatrend" here.

Note that another year has passed, and we are now looking at a previous inflation-adjusted 1980 high gold price of $9000 per ounce. It seems that the only remaining question is whether we are facing escalating inflation that can be contained by policies similar to those used by Paul Volcker in 1980, or whether we are on the eve of hyperinflation, in which case a $9000 gold price would be meaningless (it would rise much, much higher, but in this case, because of the final destruction of the currency in which it is valued).
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